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New cases (incidence) have plateaued, and are now slightly increasing.
Daily tests are slightly decreasing. The positive rate was very slowly decreasing, but has now plateaued. Worrisome.
Deaths have pretty much plateaued. Hospitalizations are declining.
Alabama is in real trouble.
Arizona could be in touble. This is not just from more testing - the positive rate is increasing.
Arkansas is in real trouble. The positive rate is spiking.
Colorado could be in trouble. New cases and positive rate are increasing.
New cases and positive rate are increasing in Illinois.
Maryland is in real trouble. New cases still increasing and positive rate is sky high.
New Hampshire is in trouble. New cases and positive rate are increasing.
North Carolina is on my watch list. New cases are increasing. Some of this is more testing, but positive rate is steady, not decreasing.
North Dakota is in real trouble. New cases and positive rate are spiking.
Oklahoma is in real trouble. New cases are spiking, positive rate is sky high.
New cases and the positive rate are increasing in Tennessee.
Virginia is in trouble. New cases still rising, positive rate is high.
The only states with South Korean-level incidence: AK, HI, ID, MT, OR, VT, WA.
The only states with adequate testing: DC, IL, ND, NM, NY, RI.
Description of these measures: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2020/05/04/484373/evidence-based-thresholds-states-must-meet-control-coronavirus-spread-safely-reopen-economies/">https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/he...
The only states with adequate testing: DC, IL, ND, NM, NY, RI.
Description of these measures: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2020/05/04/484373/evidence-based-thresholds-states-must-meet-control-coronavirus-spread-safely-reopen-economies/">https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/he...
States with sky high positive rates: DE, MD, MN, MO, VA.
States with increasing positive rates: AL, MO, MS, ND, NJ, TN, UT, WV, WY.
States with increasing positive rates: AL, MO, MS, ND, NJ, TN, UT, WV, WY.
**29 states** do not meet WHO’s threshold for positive rates.
The Rt is above 1 - the epidemic is growing - in ME, ND, TN, TX.
According to the best-performing model, daily deaths will be higher at the end of the summer than they are today. Going into the fall.
According to the best-performing model, transmission will be widespread throughout the summer. Very high baseline incidence heading into fall.
