HUGE: I have done a worldwide analysis to show the causal link between lockdown policies and the reproduction number of the pandemic. This is of crucial importance to tell if the lockdowns were medically (not to mention morally) justified.
I am now ready to share my conclusions.

And the conclusion is:

I HAVE NO F***** CLUE.

And I really spent a lot of time trying to use all sorts of causality tests, simulations, trend change tests, ML classification, etc.

Also I have read articles claiming that LD reduced R and some claiming LD didn't reduce R. And I really believe their robustness is zilch. All of them.

So here you are : you can continue enjoying your priors ! Isn't life wonderful?

I have an opinion on this, ofc, which is pure common sense (reduced contacts must mean lower R) but if I'm honest it's next to impossible to prove with the data.
.

In theory it should show in the convexity of the R(t) process over time, but there simply isn't enough data and counterfactuals to prove anything.