So at a point where the UK is seeing an estimated 10,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, and have no test, trace & isolate strategy in place, we've decided to simultaneously open schools, markets & car showrooms on the 1st June, and then all retail on the 15th.
The govt repeatedly says its following the science. It's very hard to see how science could possibly back this up. If we're trying to avoid a second wave, this has to be one of the most negligent public health strategies.
We have yet to see the impact of easing lockdown on May 13th on R (given the 2-3 wk delay in changes, given our metrics on community spread are limited due to lack of testing), but we continue to ease restrictions one after another without even waiting to see the impact of each.
This isn't being done cautiously, but rather completely irresponsibly. If R goes above 1, it's likely we won't know for 2-3 wks, and may need to lockdown again once we see exponential rises, at which point it'll be too late again. Leading once again to preventable deaths.
Why can't we wait a few weeks, and let transmission reduce further & have a testing strategy in place before taking such risks? No one can predict the impact these measures will have on transmission- lifting lockdown needs to be cautious. And monitored.
We're tackling any increases in transmission blindly, and without measures in place to control this should this get out of hand. And if it does get out of hand again, in the absence of test, trace and isolate, we will need another prolonged lockdown. Simply doesn't make sense.
Ironically, it isn't even the best strategy to avoid economic harm- the economy will be much more harmed by another prolonged lockdown. Let's remember that the lockdown was prolonged because we acted too late. We can cause even further harm by lifting too quickly.
UK public health experts have asked the govt to rethink easing lockdown so quickly repeatedly, as well as opening of schools. The govt must listen, given the mistakes already made, that have cost so much.
Just want to correct the thread to clarify that these changes are only being planned for England, and not other parts of the UK. Thanks to @Sarah_May1 for correcting me on this.
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