I& #39;ve been spending some time trying to figure out how on earth Ben Hunt ( @EpsilonTheory) isn& #39;t a bitcoiner.

At this point, I haven& #39;t heard a coherent argument from him beyond basic FUD like & #39;the military...& #39;
Ben& #39;s a great writer... I wish I had his talent. But if you read through his main argument it& #39;s not just lazy, it& #39;s wrong.

As fun and well-written as this piece is... https://www.epsilontheory.com/tag/bitcoin/ ">https://www.epsilontheory.com/tag/bitco...
the argument is seriously flawed.

To sum it up, Ben starts with a proposed analogy: his wife(USA) tried to scare coyotes(BTC) off by shaking a noisemaker - a tactic that was said to work.

The coyotes just looked at her, and went about their business, eventually walking off...
This apparently amounts to saying & #39;I& #39;m not scared of you& #39; in coyote. Which is kind of badass except now you have a bunch of humans with guns who think you aren& #39;t scared which means you& #39;ve won the game but lost the meta-game.

The way to win the meta game is to pretend fear.
He then continues with an example of parasitic investment bankers bundling BS-RMBS& #39;s only to be taken out in the street and shot in the head after the GFC.

While his writing almost hides it...
these three actually don& #39;t fit well together.

Firstly, the bankers don& #39;t fit because they& #39;re parasitic scammers while bitcoiners are advocting a revolutionary playing-field-levelling technology. They& #39;re opposites.

From @nic__carter https://americanmind.org/features/online-money-money-online/apres-le-deluge-bitcoin/">https://americanmind.org/features/...
On to the (slightly) better analogy of the coyote.

The argument is that bitcoiners aren& #39;t fully aware of the meta game they& #39;re getting into. WRONG. They know exactly the game they& #39;re getting into.
So now you& #39;re relying on the idea that the legacy system operators are smarter than bitcoiners *by orders of magnitude*.

WRONG.

I get the dore devs, Adam Back, Nick Szabo, Nic Carter, CZ, and the hundreds of others in the community... you can have whoever you want...
You think we& #39;re scared?

"My whole team will f*ckin beat your whole team& #39;s ass, how about that?"

(2:00) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDeIy4JcFgw">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
It& #39;s obviously not game over... If I& #39;m being honest, I put the chances of bitcoin winning somewhere in the 50-80% range. Right now the broader market is pricing it around 1%.

But the broader market literally doesn& #39;t even know what money is - Ben does.
That& #39;s why Ben& #39;s wrong. It& #39;s not that he& #39;s Wrong, it& #39;s that his argument isn& #39;t good. It& #39;s an asymmetric bet.

If he wants to argue against it, I think it& #39;s time for something more that & #39;the military& #39;.... THE MILITARY WHAT?

Same goes for @DavidBCollum
It& #39;s a serious question. What could they do and how do we stop it?

Game theory says banning can& #39;t work - could possibly delay a few years at best.

What else...? We need as many smart people as possible answering this question.
You can follow @SeanPLavery.
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