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I've been spending some time trying to figure out how on earth Ben Hunt ( @EpsilonTheory) isn't a bitcoiner.
At this point, I haven't heard a coherent argument from him beyond basic FUD like 'the military...'
At this point, I haven't heard a coherent argument from him beyond basic FUD like 'the military...'
Ben's a great writer... I wish I had his talent. But if you read through his main argument it's not just lazy, it's wrong.
As fun and well-written as this piece is... https://www.epsilontheory.com/tag/bitcoin/
As fun and well-written as this piece is... https://www.epsilontheory.com/tag/bitcoin/
the argument is seriously flawed.
To sum it up, Ben starts with a proposed analogy: his wife(USA) tried to scare coyotes(BTC) off by shaking a noisemaker - a tactic that was said to work.
The coyotes just looked at her, and went about their business, eventually walking off...
To sum it up, Ben starts with a proposed analogy: his wife(USA) tried to scare coyotes(BTC) off by shaking a noisemaker - a tactic that was said to work.
The coyotes just looked at her, and went about their business, eventually walking off...
This apparently amounts to saying 'I'm not scared of you' in coyote. Which is kind of badass except now you have a bunch of humans with guns who think you aren't scared which means you've won the game but lost the meta-game.
The way to win the meta game is to pretend fear.
The way to win the meta game is to pretend fear.
He then continues with an example of parasitic investment bankers bundling BS-RMBS's only to be taken out in the street and shot in the head after the GFC.
While his writing almost hides it...
While his writing almost hides it...
these three actually don't fit well together.
Firstly, the bankers don't fit because they're parasitic scammers while bitcoiners are advocting a revolutionary playing-field-levelling technology. They're opposites.
From @nic__carter https://americanmind.org/features/online-money-money-online/apres-le-deluge-bitcoin/
Firstly, the bankers don't fit because they're parasitic scammers while bitcoiners are advocting a revolutionary playing-field-levelling technology. They're opposites.
From @nic__carter https://americanmind.org/features/online-money-money-online/apres-le-deluge-bitcoin/
On to the (slightly) better analogy of the coyote.
The argument is that bitcoiners aren't fully aware of the meta game they're getting into. WRONG. They know exactly the game they're getting into.
The argument is that bitcoiners aren't fully aware of the meta game they're getting into. WRONG. They know exactly the game they're getting into.
So now you're relying on the idea that the legacy system operators are smarter than bitcoiners *by orders of magnitude*.
WRONG.
I get the dore devs, Adam Back, Nick Szabo, Nic Carter, CZ, and the hundreds of others in the community... you can have whoever you want...
WRONG.
I get the dore devs, Adam Back, Nick Szabo, Nic Carter, CZ, and the hundreds of others in the community... you can have whoever you want...
You think we're scared?
"My whole team will f*ckin beat your whole team's ass, how about that?"
(2:00)
"My whole team will f*ckin beat your whole team's ass, how about that?"
(2:00)
It's obviously not game over... If I'm being honest, I put the chances of bitcoin winning somewhere in the 50-80% range. Right now the broader market is pricing it around 1%.
But the broader market literally doesn't even know what money is - Ben does.
But the broader market literally doesn't even know what money is - Ben does.
That's why Ben's wrong. It's not that he's Wrong, it's that his argument isn't good. It's an asymmetric bet.
If he wants to argue against it, I think it's time for something more that 'the military'.... THE MILITARY WHAT?
Same goes for @DavidBCollum
If he wants to argue against it, I think it's time for something more that 'the military'.... THE MILITARY WHAT?
Same goes for @DavidBCollum
It's a serious question. What could they do and how do we stop it?
Game theory says banning can't work - could possibly delay a few years at best.
What else...? We need as many smart people as possible answering this question.
Game theory says banning can't work - could possibly delay a few years at best.
What else...? We need as many smart people as possible answering this question.
