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Stanford skeptic Ioannidis is back with a new preprint.
“People who die in nursing homes die in an median of 5 months, so it is likely that COVID-19 nursing home deaths may have happened in people with life expectancy of only a few months.”
Wrong. 1/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1
“People who die in nursing homes die in an median of 5 months, so it is likely that COVID-19 nursing home deaths may have happened in people with life expectancy of only a few months.”
Wrong. 1/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1
“The average life expectancy of a US nursing home patient is 5 months”
A dangerous oversimplification. Most nursing home patients are admitted in very poor health, often directly from the hospital.
If they can be nursed back to health, survival rates increase substantially. 2/
A dangerous oversimplification. Most nursing home patients are admitted in very poor health, often directly from the hospital.
If they can be nursed back to health, survival rates increase substantially. 2/
When analyzing median survival rates for nursing home patients, you need to understand that it’s rare for a patient to be admitted to a nursing home too early.
Residents are usually admitted from the hospital, having lived at home until they a fall or a diabetic wound. 3/
Residents are usually admitted from the hospital, having lived at home until they a fall or a diabetic wound. 3/
In this retrospective study of 416,997 patients discharged to skilled nursing facilities from acute care hospitals:
“Among all patients discharged to SNFs, 7.8% eventually died in an SNF and overall 1-year mortality was 26.1%.” 4/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4706779/
“Among all patients discharged to SNFs, 7.8% eventually died in an SNF and overall 1-year mortality was 26.1%.” 4/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4706779/
Patients are discharged from acute care facilities to SNF’s *because* they have only a few weeks to live and are transitioning to palliative care.
We can’t mix up these mortality cohorts with SNF residents who simply lack mobility or social support for mild dementia. 5/
We can’t mix up these mortality cohorts with SNF residents who simply lack mobility or social support for mild dementia. 5/
Ioannidis uses a median survival statistic for nursing home patients to make an implied QALY argument for coronavirus.
This is equivalent to saying that a 77-year old who died only lost 1.7 years of life. You can’t ignore cohorts. 6/
This is equivalent to saying that a 77-year old who died only lost 1.7 years of life. You can’t ignore cohorts. 6/
The median survival rate of nursing home residents is dominated by the sickest new patients who were discharged there to die comfortably.
There is no evidence that coronavirus prefers to kill only that cohort.
Using stats without on-the-ground clinical context is dangerous. Fin
There is no evidence that coronavirus prefers to kill only that cohort.
Using stats without on-the-ground clinical context is dangerous. Fin
