Read on Twitter
I don’t pay much attention to polls that only report approval vs. disapproval as two broad categories.
Sentiment falls on a spectrum.
Strong sentiment falls on the ends of that spectrum.
It isn’t a far trip to go from mild approval to mild disapproval or vice versa.
1/ https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/1264953881395675138
Sentiment falls on a spectrum.
Strong sentiment falls on the ends of that spectrum.
It isn’t a far trip to go from mild approval to mild disapproval or vice versa.
1/ https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/1264953881395675138
It is a long road to go from strong approval to strong disapproval or vice versa.
A politician’s “net-strongly’s” are more telling to me.
They show how large the pool is of people least likely to cross from in favor to opposed or from opposed to in favor.
2/
A politician’s “net-strongly’s” are more telling to me.
They show how large the pool is of people least likely to cross from in favor to opposed or from opposed to in favor.
2/
Rasmussen is a notoriously skewed, Trump-friendly poll.
Yet, even they have Trump at -16 in net-strong sentiment.
Strongly approve: 31%
Strongly disapprove: 47%
A candidate who is DEEPLY in the negative in strong sentiment is in major trouble.
3/
Yet, even they have Trump at -16 in net-strong sentiment.
Strongly approve: 31%
Strongly disapprove: 47%
A candidate who is DEEPLY in the negative in strong sentiment is in major trouble.
3/
In every election, no matter who the candidates are, many voters are more “voting against” a candidate they hate than “voting for” a candidate they love.
And when they hate *both* candidates, they’re voting against the candidate they hate *more*.
4/
And when they hate *both* candidates, they’re voting against the candidate they hate *more*.
4/
There are voters who hate Trump *and* hate Biden.
And Trump is in even worse shape among them!
He is -29 among people who hate both candidates.
5/ https://twitter.com/contentedindie/status/1263600248259252224
And Trump is in even worse shape among them!
He is -29 among people who hate both candidates.
5/ https://twitter.com/contentedindie/status/1263600248259252224
So, Trump is in a deep hole among people with the most entrenched feelings about him alone...
...and he is in an even deeper hole among people who have the most entrenched negative feelings *both* candidates.
6/
...and he is in an even deeper hole among people who have the most entrenched negative feelings *both* candidates.
6/
Those numbers are more daunting than being behind by 8 points in a general election poll.
They signal that in all the places where the cement of sentiment has already hardened, he is screwed... and there isn’t much wet cement left.
7/
They signal that in all the places where the cement of sentiment has already hardened, he is screwed... and there isn’t much wet cement left.
7/
And as just an aside about net-strong sentiment, that metric was one of the reasons I always knew Bernie’s widespread support was overstated.
Even at the very height of his reported popularity in 2017, when he was being billed as the most popular politician in the country...
8/
Even at the very height of his reported popularity in 2017, when he was being billed as the most popular politician in the country...
8/
His net-strong numbers were never much above even.
About 20% of the population strongly appproved of him. Around as many strongly disapproved.
He was way on the plus side among people with weak sentiment in either direction.
9/
About 20% of the population strongly appproved of him. Around as many strongly disapproved.
He was way on the plus side among people with weak sentiment in either direction.
9/
How a politician polls among people with weak sentiment either way tells us little - especially long before an election.
Strong sentiment, on the other hand, tells us about the parts of the cake that are already baked.
And Trump’s numbers are startlingly bad there.
10/
Strong sentiment, on the other hand, tells us about the parts of the cake that are already baked.
And Trump’s numbers are startlingly bad there.
10/
It’s no wonder people are starting to speculate that members of Trump’s campaign might be trying to grab every dollar they can from the Titanic’s vault.
These kinds of numbers aren’t bad. They’re awful in a way that portends a potentially crushing defeat.
11/11
These kinds of numbers aren’t bad. They’re awful in a way that portends a potentially crushing defeat.
11/11
