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1) For several weeks I have periodically shared information on Georgia's response to the #COVIDー19 epidemic. I have not updated recently since it was going to take time to see what happens. Data is beginning to emerge which is very early however also of concern. #coronavirus
2) Maps of hot spots in Georgia had suggested our state had been doing better. However today's @nytimes map suggests doubling times decreasing in rural counties. Changes in doubling times can show up earlier in small counties since they have fewer "base" cases to start with:
3) A closer look at the heat bars in the same @nytimes data and you see a VERY subtle change in the "heat bars" with a number of rural counties going from doubling times of over 30 days to between 14-30 days. This is disturbing and could be an early warning sign:
4) I tried to find a graph of serial daily hospitalization rates on the @GaDPH website but could not. This past week an Atlanta TV station WXIA published a graph which unfortunately is several days old. It suggested a POSSIBLE increasing trend in daily hospitalizations:
5) And let's not forget this past week's imbroglio over @GaDPH data manipulation where a graph was created suggesting Georgia was doing much better in new cases than was actually the case. Hard to see but look carefully at dates on bottom of graph where they were rearranged:
6) Then there is the @IHME mobility data (which is also several days old) showing that Georgia has retraced about half of the decline in mobility since the state was "reopened":
7) And we are not alone. Data in today's @WSJ from @OpenTable shows that restaurant activity is increasing in several states, including Georgia (along with several other measures of improving economic activity):
8) So what does all this mean? After all, Georgia was in the lead in "opening up" and the pictures from around the country suggest that "social distancing" is not being practiced. People want (? need) to get out and it remains uncertain if many understand how to do so safely.
9) And I would be remiss if I didn't share as part of this thread an excellent review of #cancer care in Georgia that appeared in this week's @TheCancerLetter which details the impact of the #pandemic in rural parts of the state: https://cancerletter.com/articles/20200522_3/
10) Time will tell how this unfortunate "natural experiment" will turn out. Two/three weeks from today we will see the impact of what is happening in many places around the nation on Memorial Day.
As I have said before: I pray they (the openers) are right; I fear they are not.
As I have said before: I pray they (the openers) are right; I fear they are not.
