Fresh on the back of asking some questions about the parameterization of the current SEIR models ( https://tinyurl.com/ycsaannm ), the WHO themselves released death estimates (23,611) around half the number currently being used to inform government policy (>40,000). Someone is wrong.

It is normal for death estimates to change over time. What is not normal is to behave as if nothing has changed and operate as if we are facing hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 bodies this year.

Being wrong on the high side cannot simply be dismissed as “caution” since we know that the costs of this excessive caution will far outweigh its benefits. As the death estimates continue to fall, the cost: benefit ratio of lockdown grows exponentially

(ironically this only thing that is growing exponentially around here).

A nimble and responsive government responds to data and changing estimates quickly. For example, why do we have to wait a full week before we can lift the curfew and exercise all day (besides the rain in Cape Town)?

While we’re pleased to see much of SA get released next week, we’re disappointed that there are thousands of businesses yet to be freed. Those personal services, bars & restaurants are dropping like flies and there remains little scientific basis for continuing to crush them.

It is true that many people will still fear using these services even if they were opened fully, which is why it becomes increasingly important (and has been NB from the start) to ensure there is transparent, updated and factual information shared with ordinary people.

Fear will remain one of the biggest negative legacies of lockdown – fear causing those dying to die alone. Fear preventing schools from opening. Fear preventing otherwise safe activities from taking place. Fear of socializing with loved ones.

We should not paralyze ourselves with fear which isn’t informed by truth.

Overcoming fear and opening these other businesses quickly is critical. Their proprietors & employees are amongst those with the most meagre of safety nets.
Gutsy, spirited, indefatigable people. The very last people our country should let down

Some sober revisions to the social contract will need to come into play shortly. Private sector employees and businesses have and will continue to bear the brunt of the economic cost.

Many public sector employees have not shared in the economic pain, but we will all have to take our medicine when our national balance sheet faces collapse.