Monday Dynasty Advice: Beware of Rookie Fever

With rookie drafts still going on, make sure to have realistic expectations for your rookie picks. They hit at a lower rate than you would expect, so I would look to move them for proven talent if the right trade shows up. (1/7)

Here are the rookie hit rates according to https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/03/06/often-rookie-draft-picks-hit/
▪︎1st">https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/03/0... round rookie hit rate: 45.8%
▪︎2nd round rookie hit rate: 30.6%
▪︎3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 9.3%

"A hit is one season with a top 24 RB finish, top 30 WR finish, top 12 QB/TE finish" (2/7)

Here are the rookie hit rates w/ 2+ hit seasons

▪︎1st round rookie hit rate: 31.7%
▪︎ 2nd round rookie hit rate: 18.3%
▪︎ 3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 4.2% (3/7)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✴️" title="Eight pointed star" aria-label="Emoji: Eight pointed star">Here is one trade I made in a 12 tm SF league:

Bridgewater, 2020 1.06 (Swift), and 2020 2.08 (Zach Moss)

FOR

Goff, 2020 2.04 (Tee Higgins), Boyd, Kirk, and Boykin

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✴️" title="Eight pointed star" aria-label="Emoji: Eight pointed star">Here& #39;s another one (12 team, SF)

Ekeler, 2020 1.04 (Dobbins), and Stafford

FOR

CMC and Hines (4/6)

Also, here is a tweet from @RyanMc23 that lists the consensus 1st round rookie picks through the years. Check it out if you are ever feeling rookie fever. It is a humbling experience. (5/7) https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1236759353098731521?s=20">https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/...

Here& #39;s the consensus 2nd round rookie picks through the years. (6/7) https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1242971089367707654?s=20">https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/...

The smart play is to get proven talent over rookies! Teams will buy high to get the shiny new toys, so I would sell for a haul or one excellent vet. Keep making moves and let& #39;s get a ship! (7/7)