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Monday Dynasty Advice: Beware of Rookie Fever
With rookie drafts still going on, make sure to have realistic expectations for your rookie picks. They hit at a lower rate than you would expect, so I would look to move them for proven talent if the right trade shows up. (1/7)
With rookie drafts still going on, make sure to have realistic expectations for your rookie picks. They hit at a lower rate than you would expect, so I would look to move them for proven talent if the right trade shows up. (1/7)
Here are the rookie hit rates according to https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/03/06/often-rookie-draft-picks-hit/
▪︎1st round rookie hit rate: 45.8%
▪︎2nd round rookie hit rate: 30.6%
▪︎3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 9.3%
"A hit is one season with a top 24 RB finish, top 30 WR finish, top 12 QB/TE finish" (2/7)
▪︎1st round rookie hit rate: 45.8%
▪︎2nd round rookie hit rate: 30.6%
▪︎3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 9.3%
"A hit is one season with a top 24 RB finish, top 30 WR finish, top 12 QB/TE finish" (2/7)
Here are the rookie hit rates w/ 2+ hit seasons
▪︎1st round rookie hit rate: 31.7%
▪︎ 2nd round rookie hit rate: 18.3%
▪︎ 3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 4.2% (3/7)
▪︎1st round rookie hit rate: 31.7%
▪︎ 2nd round rookie hit rate: 18.3%
▪︎ 3rd round or later rookie hit rate: 4.2% (3/7)
Here is one trade I made in a 12 tm SF league:Bridgewater, 2020 1.06 (Swift), and 2020 2.08 (Zach Moss)
FOR
Goff, 2020 2.04 (Tee Higgins), Boyd, Kirk, and Boykin
Here's another one (12 team, SF)Ekeler, 2020 1.04 (Dobbins), and Stafford
FOR
CMC and Hines (4/6)
Also, here is a tweet from @RyanMc23 that lists the consensus 1st round rookie picks through the years. Check it out if you are ever feeling rookie fever. It is a humbling experience. (5/7) https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1236759353098731521?s=20
Here's the consensus 2nd round rookie picks through the years. (6/7) https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1242971089367707654?s=20
The smart play is to get proven talent over rookies! Teams will buy high to get the shiny new toys, so I would sell for a haul or one excellent vet. Keep making moves and let's get a ship! (7/7)
