The #DominicCummings saga will accelerate bad decisions:
what's getting lost in this madness is sound decision-making.
The government is easing the lockdown measures, and will do so *before* a known to be working track, trace and isolate nationwide system is in place.
1/n

Since the government has always treated the pandemic as a PR problem, it will do so again, and given the circumstances, easing the social distancing measures, too quickly and too far is precisely what they will want to do.
Because it makes Dom's law-breaking less hurtful.
2/n

Meanwhile, we won't get a functioning track, trace and *isolate* system in place, not in time, not if they insist to have it centralised and delivered by private for-profit companies, and not while the imperative is to appease the grumbling public opinion.
3/n

Fact is that a track, trace and *isolate* system has to be swift (efficient!), ruthless and painful. While everyone is getting back to normal, at any time, you may receive news that you *have* to stay at home, because a colleague tested positive - right now, no ifs, no buts.
4/n

The last thing this government can do right now is to find the mindset to actually organise it well and concurrently sell it to the public. So they will *claim* it's in place, and will either be far too light-touch or a disastrous mix of incompetence and coercion.
5/n

Meanwhile, social/physical distancing measures will be eased, to placate public opinion.
Predictions:
1. By the end of June, number of daily new infections will be higher than now. There is some hope that warm weather might mitigate this, but I don't think we can bet on it.
6/n

2. Deaths will start increasing again during July, if not before.
3. The amount of BS spouted by the propaganda machine will skyrocket. If you think that it's high now, get ready for some fireworks.. You ain't seen nothing yet.
7/n

4. If Cummings goes, Johnson will follow. If it happens, it will be because of a revolt of Tory backbenchers, so it's unlikely to be soon.
Thus, what's needed now is to motivate the revolt, urgently.
Which is why I fully support #BOOFORBORIS.
Tomorrow, 8PM. (Spread the word!)
8/n

It needs to be loud, do bang those pots (you can make more noise and for longer).

It needs to be understood: talk to your neighbours, do it today.

Yes, you might feel silly and exposed, I will, for sure, but people are dying, if not now, when?
#BooForBoris!
9/9