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THREAD— #Israel & UAE thaw
’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 
created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & 
w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends.
But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/.
Here is how it prompted ?
1/
’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends. But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/
.Here is how it prompted ?
1/
(a) Antipathy towards Iran is “cliched” convergence but & 
feel shaky when
(b) Iran's #IRGC is upping the ante:
(i)
pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
& feel shaky when(b) Iran's #IRGC is upping the ante:
(i)
pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
....."ownership" of the Gulf.
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation.
2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause
3/
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when
sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation. 2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause
3/
First, 4 , public opinion is now less material-already it has informal diplomatic contacts w/ & even ministers used 2 visit ; cultural ties ; besides, population mass is small.
Second, on
issue, many Arab leaders believe real hurdle is Arafat/Abbas led....4/
, public opinion is now less material-already it has informal diplomatic contacts w/ & even ministers used 2 visit ; cultural ties ; besides, population mass is small.Second, on
issue, many Arab leaders believe real hurdle is Arafat/Abbas led....4/
Political authorities, not .
i.e,—
1. Yasir Arafat refused 2 state solution in 2000, as offered virtual Palestinian sovereign state from Gaza 2 West Bank w/ shared sovereignty of Jerusalem.
2.-i PM Ehud Olmert repeated this offer 2 Abbas in 2008; but was snubbed
5/
. i.e,—
1. Yasir Arafat refused 2 state solution in 2000, as
offered virtual Palestinian sovereign state from Gaza 2 West Bank w/ shared sovereignty of Jerusalem.2.
-i PM Ehud Olmert repeated this offer 2 Abbas in 2008; but was snubbed 5/
3. Most pro-Palestinian #US President Obama even failed 2 convince Mehmood Abbas.
Now GCC leaders understand:
a) that worse can do 2 annex same settlements already part of its protection;
b) comprehensive withdrawal of From Gaza in 2005 never led 2 peace;
6/
Now GCC leaders understand:
a) that worse
can do 2 annex same settlements already part of its protection;b) comprehensive withdrawal of
From Gaza in 2005 never led 2 peace; 6/
c) -is can not be cleansed from the land “from river 2 the sea” as Palestinians would say;
d) “Land 4 peace” strategy outlived its utility;
e) outrage on annexation of Golan Heights, East Jerusalem & moving #US Embassy 2 Jerusalem did not materially alter statuesque 4
7/
-is can not be cleansed from the land “from river 2 the sea” as Palestinians would say; d) “Land 4 peace” strategy outlived its utility;
e) outrage on annexation of Golan Heights, East Jerusalem & moving #US Embassy 2 Jerusalem did not materially alter statuesque 4
7/
So 4 Arab statesmen, small part of West Bank annexation may even push Palestinian leaders 2 smell the coffee & allow some compromise.
Meanwhile, they can not mortgage their geo-political imperatives to Palestinian leaders’ obduracy hence seeking 2 enhance cooperation w/.
8/
Meanwhile, they can not mortgage their geo-political imperatives to Palestinian leaders’ obduracy hence seeking 2 enhance cooperation w/
.8/
Option 4 Pakistan: due 2
1) No political will, 2) stranglehold of clergy lobby on FP, 3) strong public opinion & 4) ’s leverage, may unlikely debate merits of engagement w/ .
Nor will opt 4 Turkey template: 
has ties w/ yet strongly support Palestinians.
9/
1) No political will, 2) stranglehold of clergy lobby on FP, 3) strong public opinion & 4)
’s leverage, may unlikely debate merits of engagement w/ . Nor
will opt 4 Turkey template: has ties w/ yet strongly support Palestinians. 9/
failed 2 see rising 
& ties as alarm 2 consider engaging 2 impose conditionality on use of its weapons by , re, .Weaponising of
issue is never a rational FP course, not least giving in 2 clergy. PM @ImranKhanPTI can take the bull by the horns.
10/. End
