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THREAD— #Israel & UAE thaw
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇪" title="Flag of United Arab Emirates" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Arab Emirates">’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan"> w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends.
But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">.
Here is how it prompted ?
1/
But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/
Here is how it prompted ?
1/
(a) Antipathy towards Iran is “cliched” convergence but https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇪" title="Flag of United Arab Emirates" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Arab Emirates"> & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇦" title="Flag of Saudi Arabia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Saudi Arabia"> feel shaky when
(b) Iran& #39;s #IRGC is upping the ante:
(i)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇷" title="Flag of Iran" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Iran"> pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
(b) Iran& #39;s #IRGC is upping the ante:
(i)
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
....."ownership" of the Gulf.
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership whenhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇷" title="Flag of Iran" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Iran"> sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation.
2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause
3/
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when
2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause
3/
First, 4 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇪" title="Flag of United Arab Emirates" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Arab Emirates">, public opinion is now less material-already it has informal diplomatic contacts w/ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> & even ministers used 2 visit https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇪" title="Flag of United Arab Emirates" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Arab Emirates"> ; cultural ties ; besides, population mass is small.
Second, onhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇸" title="Flag of Palestinian Territories" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Palestinian Territories"> issue, many Arab leaders believe real hurdle is Arafat/Abbas led....4/
Second, on
Political authorities, not https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">.
i.e,—
1. Yasir Arafat refused 2 state solution in 2000, ashttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> offered virtual Palestinian sovereign state from Gaza 2 West Bank w/ shared sovereignty of Jerusalem.
2.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">-i PM Ehud Olmert repeated this offer 2 Abbas in 2008; but was snubbed
5/
i.e,—
1. Yasir Arafat refused 2 state solution in 2000, as
2.
5/
3. Most pro-Palestinian #US President Obama even failed 2 convince Mehmood Abbas.
Now GCC leaders understand:
a) that worsehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> can do 2 annex same settlements already part of its protection;
b) comprehensive withdrawal ofhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> From Gaza in 2005 never led 2 peace;
6/
Now GCC leaders understand:
a) that worse
b) comprehensive withdrawal of
6/
c) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">-is can not be cleansed from the land “from river 2 the sea” as Palestinians would say;
d) “Land 4 peace” strategy outlived its utility;
e) outrage on annexation of Golan Heights, East Jerusalem & moving #US Embassy 2 Jerusalem did not materially alter statuesque 4https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">
7/
d) “Land 4 peace” strategy outlived its utility;
e) outrage on annexation of Golan Heights, East Jerusalem & moving #US Embassy 2 Jerusalem did not materially alter statuesque 4
7/
So 4 Arab statesmen, small part of West Bank annexation may even push Palestinian leaders 2 smell the coffee & allow some compromise.
Meanwhile, they can not mortgage their geo-political imperatives to Palestinian leaders’ obduracy hence seeking 2 enhance cooperation w/https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">.
8/
Meanwhile, they can not mortgage their geo-political imperatives to Palestinian leaders’ obduracy hence seeking 2 enhance cooperation w/
8/
Option 4 Pakistan: due 2
1) No political will, 2) stranglehold of clergy lobby on FP, 3) strong public opinion & 4)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇷" title="Flag of Iran" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Iran"> ’s leverage, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan"> may unlikely debate merits of engagement w/ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel">.
Norhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan"> will opt 4 Turkey template: https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flag of Turkey" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Turkey"> has ties w/ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flag of Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Israel"> yet strongly support Palestinians.
9/
1) No political will, 2) stranglehold of clergy lobby on FP, 3) strong public opinion & 4)
Nor
9/
Weaponising of
PM @ImranKhanPTI can take the bull by the horns.
10/. End
