If Covid-19 has been in Europe since late last year, why did we only see a relatively 'normal' epidemic curve spike in march?

The only answer I can come up with is: normal flu procedures work, and by ignoring these, we created it.

Tell me if I'm crazy.

1/

During a normal flu season, most sane people don't bother going to a doctor unless something goes seriously wrong. Hospitals and care homes take extra care. People die, but things are broadly okay.

We upended every one of those things early on.

2/

Instead of people staying away, everyone with a cough now needs a test for a 'potentially deadly' disease - early in the process, when they are most infectious (seems to be about 7 days from symptoms with an 11 day total window) but least in need of intervention

3/

So even as we clear out hospitals (which are now full of infectious people due to previous) we introduce only vulnerable and highly infectious people into the setting, whether they need to be there or not.

4/

Instead of the sickness being basically burned out in the general population, we take anyone infectious we can find and put them in places that are full of vulnerable people, and then shift those vulnerable people away to other places full of vulnerable people.

5/

...which gives us the difference between JPN, KOR, and SWE/EU generally: The west 'made capacity' and tested everyone in hospital settings, JPN and KOR stayed the course and didn't panic, and it paid off.

Our normal Flu protocols work. Shifting from them killed people.

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And, in fact, we saw exactly this in China: The sickness was clearly there for months, but only when the alarm is sounded and people flock to the hospitals do we start seeing skyrocketing deathrates.

Also why Wuhan was particularly bad, with no (apparent) incidents elsewhere.