So. What happens next?

Johnson will hope this blows over, and in a couple of weeks we'll all forget. But how likely is it people will forget their mum died alone? Or that they couldn't meet their grandkids for months? Or their business failed cos nobody could leave home?

They say everyone remembered where they were when Kennedy was shot, or 9/11 happened.

Well this is similar, but it didn't happen miles away - it happened in your home. We will all remember Covid19, even if we lost nobody.

And Cummings is a key event. It won't be forgotten.

The instinct for Johnson will be: make something big happen that drags attention away.

Buy what big announcement could there be? His schools thing yesterday was totally ignored. Any "we're opening" announcement will be met by distrust and fear. That route out is closed

He could announce he's spending loads of money, but on what? Who cares about visitor centres now?

If he spends on NHS, we'll ask: why not before? Ditto anything covid related.

And his own backers will ask: where will the money come from?

So that route is closed.

He could announce some big news on Brexit. But that's turned into exactly the calamity predicted, we just haven't been paying attention. Nothing positive to announce there.

The only thing he can announce is postponement. Which I'd love, but his voters won't.

So that's out.

So he'll hope we all get bored.

But I've seen multiple tweets from people I broadly trust claiming new details have been held back so the story runs. And today I predict we'll see polling showing Tories have lost major support, and Johnson personally lost a tsunami of support.

Plus, NHS data modelling shows a second wave in approx 8 to 13 days, which coincides with Parliament reopening, and fearsome questions that a hugely impressive Starmer has has 2 weeks to perfect.

All of which we will blame on Johnson and Cummings.

(Cos that's another mighty mistake Johnson made: he associated himself personally with Cummings. Because BJ has always escaped blame by turning on the charm, he figured he'd be fine. But Cummings is charmessness personified, which nullifies BJ's main advantage - charm)

The near future looks remarkably bad for Johnson. And not just him: every Tory MP will read these runes, and a lot of them are already furious and / or nervous.

But long-term, he can ride it out, yeah?

Well... I don't see how. This feels too big.

The levels of anger surpass anything I expected. I knew the left would fume, but Steve Baker, JHB, Tim Montgomerie, and the Bishops? Wow.

And Johnson just lost the Daily Mail. That doesn't mean BJ lost the editor, it means the editor knows BJ lost the readers.

Trust is an ephemeral thing. Takes a lifetime to build it and a 2 minute statement to destroy it. Once gone, it's gone. You can do your funny shtick all you want, but when your audience instinctive no longer buys it... it'll be like Bill Cosby returning to standup.

And behind all this lie a festering pool of other factors.

Johnson evaded question, so people will continue to ask.

Police are now investigating.

And nobody likes Cummings, so there WILL be briefs and leaks and paltry support.

I say again: vast error by Johnson.