I have been asked by several people now, how they feel that the current situation in HK will impact the #vanre and #tore markets, so here are my thoughts:

(1) The impact will be small, but noticeable. This is NOT 1997. While this is a big move by the CCP, this isn’t a firm deadline. Rights will continue to be eroded slowly moving forward.

(2) This has been portrayed in the Western media as being the CCP vs Hong Kongers. It’s much more complicated than that. Not sure if there’s any polling on this, but my impression is that HKers are actually split close to 50/50 between being pro-Beijing and anti-Beijing.

(3) I’ve actually been quite surprised by how many HKers I meet who support the CCP over the protesters.

(4) Of that split, the 50% who are pro-Beijing are likely more affluent than the 50% who are anti-Beijing. The pro-Beijing side would happily take safety, security, and prosperity over freedom and democracy. The anti-Beijing side would prefer the opposite.

(5) Because of that, the side that is most likely able to impact the #vanre market, is more likely to try to stick it out in HK, or make a go of it in Singapore, Shenzhen, or Shanghai. I have heard of many other HK families choosing to move to Taiwan to hold out a little longer.

(6) Of those 400,000+ Canadians in HK who do decide to throw in the towel and return to Canada, the vast majority will be more ‘middle class’, looking for properties up to $2 million. The wealthiest HKers already have a beachhead in Canada and do not need to buy another property

(7) BTW, those 400,000+ Canadians in HK can get married and have kids. If that happens, that number can jump to over 1M very fast.

(8) In summary, this is no 1997. There will be an impact, but it won’t be felt by the average Vancouverite. Plugged in #vanre insiders and China-hands will notice a difference though. Developers who are savvy will be able to use this to boost sales slightly.

(9) The bigger story may end up being who DOESN’T leave Vancouver. We have a history of people coming here for school and then leaving for SF, NYC, London, HK, and Shanghai. I just spoke with a friend who was offered a job in HK. Will he go now? Look for talented ppl to stay now

(10) I’m not really a twitter guy, so apologies if I did it wrong. /end.