1) When Quebec’s top public health officer announced a ramp-up in #COVID testing, he predicted an inevitable increase in cases. However, the opposite has occurred in Montreal in the past three days. In this thread, I will explain why we can't take this good fortune for granted.

2) On Friday, authorities completed 15,375 #COVID analyses, surpassing for a second day the 14,000-daily target. The past five-day average comes to nearly 13,000 a day. Yet Montreal is not observing a steady rise in the number of infections.

3) In fact, the opposite has taken place since Thursday, as the orange line in the chart below shows. What’s more, it’s now taking 27 days for the total number of cases to double in Montreal, compared with a doubling rate of 16 days on May 2.

4) Also on Sunday, authorities reported a drop of 17 #COVID hospitalizations across the province, the fifth day of such decreases. In total, 1,435 Quebecers were being treated for the #pandemic respiratory illness on Sunday, compared with 878 in Ontario.

5) Meanwhile, the number of daily #COVID deaths in Montreal is clearly on the decline. The city declared 30 new deaths Sunday, compared with 70 to a hundred a day more than two weeks ago. It’s now taking almost 23 days for the death toll to double, up from only 10 days on May 2.

6) The #COVID crisis is still concentrated in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences. But here, too, there is some modest progress. The total number of outbreaks in these institutions in Montreal dipped from 170 to 166 on Sunday.

7) But the CHSLD Jeanne-Le Ber on Hochelaga St. reported 96 active #COVID infections on Saturday, demonstrating once again that nursing homes are so prone to outbreaks. However, the total provincial tally of cases in CHSLDs and seniors' residences dropped by 80 on Sunday.

8) At the neighborhood level in Montreal, none of the #COVID hot stops recorded new cases above 30 Sunday. And no borough posted daily increases in deaths higher than four. Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve declared two deaths on Sunday. Two weeks ago, it reported a dozen a day.

9) Any way you look at it, there are now signs the #pandemic is beginning to come under control in Montreal. But as I pointed out yesterday, the #coronavirus is still smouldering, and our health-care system is still weak and overwhelmed.

10) The progress is undeniable, but it’s also tenuous and could be reversed easily. On Friday, the government allowed public gatherings of 10 people. On Mount-Royal on Sunday afternoon, I saw plenty of gatherings of greater than 10, with minimal or no #SocialDistancing.

11) Authorities confirmed the recent #COVID death of a man his 40s Sunday, the fourth front-line health worker to die in the #pandemic in Quebec. Let not this father’s death be in vain. As many stores reopen in Montreal Monday, please maintain #PhysicalDistancing. End of thread.