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The number one question asked these days is, "What& #39;s going to happen now that cities / states are reopening?" The tough thing is that "re-opening" means so many things. A few thoughts.
Reopening is heterogeneous, as are new case rates in the states: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interacti... There will be a complex interaction between reopening and case rate in determining what happens next.
What states declare and what actually happens is complicated. Even in states where officials have "opened," individuals and communities may or may not engage, depending on many factors, including what they see as responsible safety measures by businesses allowed to open.
It& #39;s hard to judge from the handful of media images of really crowded places. We should look at more objective measures of reopening, such as density of auto emissions, # in-store purchases, or other things corroborating actual in-person engagement across the population.
We also need objective measures of uptake of recommended layered protections, like social distancing, frequent disinfection of common spaces, hand washing, face coverings, etc., structural alternations to protect people within places of business and worship
Again, media pics like these would suggest the uptake of things like facemasks isn& #39;t great, but what is actually happening wrt these measures in any community, layered over case rate, and measures of people-out-there all contribute to what we can expect https://twitter.com/HellgrenWJZ/status/1264311034996838401?s=20">https://twitter.com/HellgrenW...
Layer on top of THAT a community& #39;s ability to detect, rapidly, the impact of re-engagement. Those with surveillance in place may show concerning uptick sooner and in larger numbers than those without it, which may skew our impression of who has "safely" opened and who has not.
This will be a cool exercise in sampling methods to figure out how to capture what’s happening across all these parameters and present THAT map to the public on an ongoing basis
