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Why has Germany so fewer COVID deaths per million than we do and what can we learn? 1/6
Could difference be because of the way that deaths are counted? No. Our analysis of excess deaths (which don't rely on how a COVID death is defined) tells a similar story. 2/6 https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/understanding-excess-mortality-the-fairest-way-to-make-international-comparisons
So what could explain such large differences? @BBCMoreorLess this week highlighted two factors – timing of lockdown and testing. 3/6 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j949
1. Lockdown. We and Germany locked down at around the same time but at lockdown we had 3x as many deaths. May not sound a lot but modelling by @JamesAnnan suggests lockdown in the UK a week earlier would have saved 30k lives. 4/6 https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-human-cost-of-delaying-lockdown/
2. Testing and quarantine. Germans got their system up and running quickly. By mid-March there were 170 labs doing 15,000 tests a day. Patients testing positive were quarantined. This slowed the spread. 5/6
Incidentally when @BBCMoreOrLess went out they didn't think the target of 100k tests a day had yet been met. The govt numbers count kits sent out not if/when they are used. Numbers also include 30k tests included for research by ONS and universities, not for diagnoses, 6/6
