Biden+5 in MN. Probably a bit of an outlier considering other polling elsewhere suggesting a more robust Biden lead, but the lack of Minnesota polling makes this one a bit difficult to put into context. https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1264602349265354752

Considering the pattern of polling, a situation where Biden is only winning MN by 5 is probably the type of race where he is possibly losing Wisconsin by a point or so and is counting on flipping Arizona to win.

I am never a proponent of spending too much time analyzing a single poll, but Minnesota has been quite the polling void the last few years.

Working off the assumption that they are using the same regions that they did in 2018, the crosstabs suggest Biden running ~3 points behind Clinton in Hennepin/Ramsey, 13 points ahead of Clinton in the "rest of metro" which (again assuming regions haven't changed) includes (1/?)

some non-7-county-metro counties. ~ a point better in "southern MN" and ~a point better in "northern MN." (2/2)

Despite the top-line, the concern for Trump in this poll would be undecided which are disproportionately independents and it would appear that they disproportionately disapprove of Trump. They are Trump +1 (+6 vs state), but disapprove net -8 (even with state).

That would probably suggest there might be some underlying downside in the poll for Trump and could help reconcile it a bit more with other polling.

Undecideds are also disproportionately metro which is also another warning sign here for Trump. 9% in Hennepin/Ramsey (32.4% of the statewide vote in 2016) and 8% in the rest of the metro which in 2018 made up ~29% f the vote (don't have 2016 on me at the moment).

On the note of MN vs WI and the questions I got there: there is obviously plenty of uncertainty because 1. it's just one poll and self-reported undecideds can affect things 2. we don't know Biden won't slip with college educateds (1/2)

3. It's based on a combination of 2018 results, Trump approval polling over the past few years between MN/WI, and polling between WI and Nationwide/PA/MI/OH/WI where we have more numbers.

All in all, throw it in the pile of all other polling we have and hope we get more Minnesota polling down the stretch (doubtful, the attention from pollsters will remain with tipping point states and states with a large national media presence)

One more thing: to elaborate on those points I made MN v WI, I made that assumption based on the topline remaining the same. If undecided (as they seem to here) skew away from Trump, that would suggest a slightly larger Biden edge and then flipping WI anyhow by a couple points.