I'm not an economist but* I wanted to post a short thread because I remain concerned that we are not distinguishing clearly between the alleged economic costs of the lockdown, and the same costs (current and future) of the *pandemic* (this means, the virus and COVID-19).

* lol

Before I get to the economic part (which, of course, is everything, because economics teaches you about all aspects of life so that you can confidently graph disease with the same ease as financial indicators*), some context...

*lol

I raised this several days ago, re: the decline in basic healthcare provision/access including for TB & HIV, for cancer treatment, & for elective surgery. This is often blamed on 'lockdown' but all medical care has been allowed since Level 5.

/2

Access to transport (to get to a clinic) in early lockdown contributed to lower attendance, but a major cause of people not getting tested or treated is: fear of catching the virus or facilities temporarily closed because of infections (eg St Augustine's) I.e. *not* lockdown

/3

This is entirely anecdotal but I have heard several stories of doctors postponing non-emergency, elective surgeries particularly for elderly patients because simply coming to a hospital can be a massive risk factor for them. This is a cost of the virus, not the lockdown.

/4

So the point of the above is: there are many behavioural and logistical ultimately financial choices that are being made *because there is a highly infectious and potentially fatal virus* around, not because we are in lockdown.

/5

There are also specific impacts of lockdown, like which hours you can walk your dog, not being able to buy booze or cigarettes or flip flops. Businesses that have not been allowed to open, employees not yet allowed to work. People not earning incomes, or getting paid salaries

/6

But – with the exception of which shoes etc you can buy – saying these businesses, employees, incomes will only be adversely affected by 'lockdown' not by the pandemic, may be misleading. So let's 'change' the lockdown variable* and see how it works?

* I'm an economist lol

/7

Scenario: Lockdown is relaxed & people can do most things, with lots of hand washing + masks. But there's still no cure for the virus, & people are still getting sick.

- More police stations, clinics, home affairs branches close in response to outbreaks & deaths

/8

At the same time, businesses re-open (some have to close while staff etc are sick, or die) but spending patterns have changed because there is a global recession/depression (because of the pandemic, and 100s of 1000s of deaths). So some businesses fold anyway.

/9

While specific businesses and individual incomes will, sadly, suffer fatal or long-term consequences as a result of lockdown, the longer-term consequences are those of the virus. We're not suddenly going to go back to shopping like we used to. Because we're in a pandemic.

/10

We're also not going to be able to travel like we used to – so tourism, that's gonna take a massive knock, everywhere in the world. Why? Because we are vectors for a highly infectious and potentially fatal virus. Not because of 'lockdown'. Because of the pandemic.

/11

Another big market shifter is going to be people working from home. This is not actually a lockdown measure – it's a disease control measure, to limit exposure to other vectors (i.e. people). This means less commuting, less petrol, fewer new cars?

/12

Home delivery is also changing retail radically. Will malls with their massive rents become obsolete, as people move away from places with too many people (again, this is because of the pandemic, not the lockdown) and favour online shopping for those who can afford it?

/13

You might notice a thread here. The people who can't work from home, who have to commute on public transport, who can't get online delivery in their area, are also... You guessed it, the essential service workers we called heroes so we can cheer them on while they die.

/14

So: what will be the cost of having stores and clinics and police stations and government offices shut down when people get sick, and even die?

Genuinely – work out what will happen if a hotel has full occupancy, and then two cleaning staff test positive for COVID?

etc

/fin

I said /fin but I thought of one NB thing.

We're not going back to life or an economy the way it was before. Any assumption that anything will be normal for another many years is wrong. 'After' is going to be different on so many levels – because of the disease, not lockdown.