People talk about the effect of official lockdowns vs. citizen decisions on the transmission rate of the #coronavirus . I really like the combination of these 2 graphs:
Here we can see the effect that a delay of 5 days had on the curve of NY cases vs. Spain [1/7]
Here we can see the effect that a delay of 5 days had on the curve of NY cases vs. Spain [1/7]
NY was trailing Spain pretty closely in # of cases. But Spain ordered its lockdown on March 15. Two weeks later, cases were going down. NY took 5 more days, so its # of cases blew past Spain& #39;s. As a result, so far Spain has had 235k cases vs 360k for NY. [2/7]
But we can also see that NY& #39;s curve started bending before the 2 weeks since the lockdown. Why? Because of changes in citizen behavior. [3/7]
By the time the shelter-in-place was effective in NY, on March 22nd, ppl had already stopped asking Apple for directions. It& #39;s likely they had curtailed some of their movement already, especially superfluous trips. [4/ 7]
We can see that effect on the NY case curve, which starts bending before 2w have passed since the March 22nd shelter-in-place. But it doesn& #39;t fully bend until the order was active.
That suggests that BOTH citizen behavior AND gov orders had an impact on #coronavirus spread [5/7]
That suggests that BOTH citizen behavior AND gov orders had an impact on #coronavirus spread [5/7]
Side note: movement in both countries did not change at all until March 10th, despite raging outbreaks in Iran and Italy. However, starting on March 10th—the day we published Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now—mobility starts dropping. [6/7] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca">https://medium.com/@tomaspue...