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Given all that is happening along the India-China border and with Nepal, a quick #thread on China’s motivations and methods in South Asia based on analysis from our book #PaxSinica ( https://amzn.to/2XmpETi ). @samirsaran
As a primer, you can read an extract here
https://twitter.com/samirsaran/status/1264170233046069248
As a primer, you can read an extract here
https://twitter.com/samirsaran/status/1264170233046069248
On the region—
We have argued that an independent South Asian construct does not serve China’s interests. Beijing would like to subsume these regional configurations into nodes and networks under the #BRI
We have argued that an independent South Asian construct does not serve China’s interests. Beijing would like to subsume these regional configurations into nodes and networks under the #BRI
We also identify China’s ‘toolkit’ for conscripting smaller states into the BRI, including tactical military interventions against incumbent powers, and what this means for South Asia and India’s relationship with its neighbours.
On Nepal—
Smaller South Asian states, like Nepal, who have sometimes shared an uneasy relationship with India, see China’s presence as an opportunity to hedge their interests. As we have argued, this has worked well for them over the past five years or so.
Smaller South Asian states, like Nepal, who have sometimes shared an uneasy relationship with India, see China’s presence as an opportunity to hedge their interests. As we have argued, this has worked well for them over the past five years or so.
It is quite concerning that some of the area’s Nepal is disputing fall at a trijunction. During the Doklam crisis, India could physically intervene knowing that Bhutan had actively dissuaded and disputed Chinese presence.
China’s behaviour with India fits a broader pattern of taking advantage of the #covid19 pandemic to advance its illegitimate territorial interests, as it doing in the #SCS. https://www.cfr.org/blog/covid-19-and-south-china-sea
There are likely several interrelated causes for why China is exacerbating tensions with India now:
-India’s own border infrastructure activities.
-India’s leadership position at the WHO at this critical global moment.
-Concern about Aksai Chin after India reorganised J&K.
-India’s own border infrastructure activities.
-India’s leadership position at the WHO at this critical global moment.
-Concern about Aksai Chin after India reorganised J&K.
The causes could also be domestic:
-China is hosting its annual “2 sessions” meeting; and other policy decisions, like the HK Nat. Sec. Law, signal “strong” leadership.
-China could be trying to distract domestic audencies from the economic and geopol. consequences of #covid19
-China is hosting its annual “2 sessions” meeting; and other policy decisions, like the HK Nat. Sec. Law, signal “strong” leadership.
-China could be trying to distract domestic audencies from the economic and geopol. consequences of #covid19
#PaxSinica is available here: https://www.amazon.in/PAX-SINICA-Implications-Indian-Dawn-ebook/dp/B07Z6G8DBM
