The sighting of the new crescent depends on 2 main (scientific) things: (1) Astronomcial factors; and (2) Meteorological factors. Any lunar calendar calculation can only address the 1st factor & not the 2nd. Climatic conditions can be predicted, too, but even supercomputers >

cannot tell you weather conditions more than 1 week ahead. The “sighting” of the moon is just that - physical sighting with our eyes from a particular point on Earth. Enter the (silly) “Team Fawad vs. Team Muneeb” controversy:

@fawadchaudhry is relying on astronomical >

calculations of SUPARCO to make his announcements. SUPARCO in turn is basing its calculations on the crescent’s visibility from Pakistan. So, in effect, SUPARCO is doing exactly what “Team Muneeb” is doing - ensuring that the crescent is visible, which, as per NASA’s advice >

has to be 24-hours after conjunction occurs (i.e. when new moon is born). See attached pic.

So SUPARCO’s calendar takes this 24-hour band into its calculation and tells us when 1st Shawwal (Eid Al-Fitr) will begin. What SUPARCO can’t calculate a year ahead, though, is the weather conditions. It is important to note here that “Team Muneeb” cares about physical sighting >

to meet the criteria of the Sunnah. It is also important to note at this point that the new moon was born (conjunction) at exactly 5:38 PM Universal Time on Friday, May 22nd. This corresponds to Pakistan time 10:38 PM on Friday, May 22nd.

Note SUPARCO did not say that Eid >

will be on Saturday, May 23rd, despite the new moon being born 10:38 PM Pak time (which was known way ahead because of calculations). Rather, SUPARCO took NASA’s advice and calculated 1st of Shawwal on evening of May 24th, 2020. This should clarify that SUPARCO is following >

“Team Muneeb” criteria of sighting. So there is NO CONFLICT here. This is why I said that 99.999% of the time “Team Fawad” and “Team Muneeb” will converge. Already we have seen them converge 3 out of 3 times. This further adds credence to Muneeb’s methodology (unlike Popalzai) >

as it is now being shown to be exactly in line with scientific evidence! I say 99.999% and not 100% because, as the very first tweet points out, there is the ‘small’ issue of the weather. It is hypothetically possible (though improbable) that weather conditions across all >

of Pakistan could make it impossible to spot the new crescent from anywhere in Pakistan. So, although highly unlikely, SUPARCO and Muneeb’s opinions could diverge with 0.001 out of 100 times.

So all those people rallying behind “Team Fawad” (Team Lota?) are simply unaware >

of the sciences (both astronomical and meteorological) related to this subject. Celebrating that @fawadchaudhry got it right before Muneeb is outright childish. Of course the prediction/calculation precedes the physical sighting! But to this liberal tola, such histrionics >

is a small price to pay in order to indulge in their favorite pass time, viz Mullah bashing. They will gladly acr like fools while feigning ‘sophistication’ because they get meaning in their lives by bashing Maulvis. Science and Religion be damned. <end>

Addendum: Here is an example of the Mullah bashing that I talk about above.

https://twitter.com/odysseuslahori/status/1264408749579677697?s=21 https://twitter.com/odysseuslahori/status/1264408749579677697

Errata: Just noticed a small typo: SUPARCO’s calculation for 1st of Shawwal was evening of May 23rd, 2020 (note: this is the same as Mufti Muneeb. In the Lunar calendar, the night comes before the day so Maghreb time is the start of the new month).