I created a sim on Excel to see what could happen if the @EFL #Championship was decided with each game played & points given on PPG as they went along. For example, Luton v Preston. Luton had 0.94 whilst Preston had 1.51. Preston win the 3 points. PPG adjusted ready for next game
After 46 games, the PPG league table looked like this. Note that goals scored/conceded were not altered.
As you can see, #Leeds & #WestBrom are still promoted automatically but instead of #Preston making the play offs, like all other PPG tables suggest, it's #Milwall who creep in
This model accepted that draws could be possible, where two teams had the same PPG when they faced each other, and were awarded 1 point each accordingly and it happened twice - #Derby v #Reading and #SheffWed v #Huddersfield.
During the final 9 games, the play off places changed often. After 39 games, #BrentfordFC ford dropped out, whilst #BristolC went into 6th. After 43 games, it was Millwalls time to crash the party sending Preston out of the play offs for the first time. 2pts separated the 4 teams
This was not the only model I ran. I also ran a model based on teams Home PPG and Away PPG. This time, in a similar fashion, teams were awarded 3 points based on if (playing at home) their home PPG was better than their away opponents away PPG. Luton had 1.38 to Prestons 1.11.
So with #Luton having 1.38 to #Preston 1.11, this meant that Luton won the 3 points (their home record meant that they won 5 of their last 9 in this model, but still got relegated). Like the other model, this got adjusted after each match. End of the season pulled a big surprise!
#WestBrom won the league in this model, with #Leeds slipping up against #Derby. By the time they played, Derby got 2.09 PPG at home, whilst Leeds had 1.95 PPG away.
Also, because of Fulhams "harder" run in, they ended 4th in the table with Nottm Forest in 3rd. Brentford 5th.
For Bristol City, it was there away form that let them down. This model gave them defeats to Swansea and Middlesbrough late in the run in that cost them a place in the Play Offs.
What we do see, however, is at the bottom Huddersfield in fact are relegated and not Charlton.
Huddersfields PPG at home and away only earned them 9 points from the 27. Charton equalled them on 51 points, earning 12 points on the way but (like with the other model) GD sent Huddersfield down.
This thread is just to show a bit of fun and how differing models can predict different outcomes for this particular division. Not a lot changed in the grand scheme of things. WBA and Leeds went up, Fulham, Nottm Forest & Brentford still made play offs and Barnsley & Luton down.
And just for clarity - here is the PPG league tables and current GD if PPG were to be used for the remainder 9 games.
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