1/ This will sound bizarre & I may be wrong, but I think the Cummings story is a trap.
Why?
1. Father phoned police
2. Cummings wasn’t tested
3. Govt’s coordinated reaction
4. 2 month delay
5. “Dancing Queen” & “ number plate stories
6. This = their tactic https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1264136929118912518?s=21
2/ I’ve been trying to unpack the #COVID19 crisis for months, & amidst the smoke & mirrors I’ve started to see a pattern: & this feels familiar

The story that Cummings was investigated by the police is starting to fray

Downing St rejected it

Now police say father called them!
3/ On 30 March,👇I was baffled why #DominicCummings hadn’t been immediately tested for #COVID19 when he started displaying symptoms in the way Hancock & PM had been.

The story at the time was he was isolating But why was there no announcement of a test?
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1244561051447934976?s=21 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1244561051447934976
4/ The govt reaction has been calm & coordinated.

I’ve worked in communications a long time & this feels well-oiled. From the source’s swift rebuttal (via @bbclaurak) to the messages of support from ministers to the “we will not waste our time on a response” reaction from No.10.
5/. Why has the story taken almost two months to come out?

Many journalists & Twitter users will have been aware of the rumours about #DominicCummings’ Durham visits for many weeks.

Where and when did these witnesses appear?

Was the delay due to not finding more testimony?
6/. As soon as I read the detail about ABBA blasting, peering over the fence & seeing Cummings, I thought it sounded like a ‘planted’ detail.

So does the “searched up the number plate” story.

Spectator articles by #Cummings & his wife & her R4 reading also raised my suspicions.
7/. We’re not familiar with the tactics being used here, but to understand them it’s useful to look at Putin’s advisor, Surkov, who turned Russian politics into a bewildering, constantly changing piece of theatre.

It’s rumoured Cummings knows Surkov well.
8/. And so to the trap:

The story dominates the headlines for days. But starts to collapse.

Yes, he drove to Durham but he wasn’t investigated by the police...he didn’t do it twice (?)...he did it on advice from the CMO (?) etc.

The “fake news” media will have to apologise. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736
9/. I hope I’m wrong & this is cock-up not conspiracy. But the strategy all along has been to use cock up to MASK conspiracy.

Controversy is repeatedly used to distract from the real story.

My fear is that #Cummings is using himself as the ultimate distraction...& it’s working. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1264143108457062401
10/. People whose opinion I respect have responded saying it was “arrogance & overreach”...but would #Cummings REALLY go walking in beauty spots?

More clues that this is political theatre:
1) His dash from No.10 on 27/3
2) This almost imperceptible smile👇
11/. As a rule, I don’t speculate on Twitter, but - at the risk of being accused of ‘wearing a tin hat’ - this thread is pure speculation.

I have no inside knowledge or evidence beyond what’s in the public domain, but my view is that the sightings of #Cummings won’t be verified.
12/. Whilst I believe #Cummings is supremely arrogant, I don’t believe that he’d allow his arrogance to overwhelm his common sense.

I just can’t believe one of the most recognisable & controversial men in British politics would stroll around beauty spots during lockdown...twice!
13/. Rumours that #DominicCummings had travelled to Durham have been swirling for almost 2 months.

This morning, @PippaCrerar told #Marr that they’d been investigating the story “for six weeks”.

So why did they go public now?

Perhaps it was because of new witness testimony.
14/ Perhaps the editors felt Cummings staying with his parents wasn’t a strong enough story on its own, but 2 ‘sightings of him’ in the bluebells persuaded them.

But no one took a photo?

Instead, Robin Lees (70) wrote down the car number plate & Googled it.
That’s the evidence.
15/. The story has everything.

A villain, a riddle & lots of human interest.

It will suck up the headlines & airtime for days until the “truth” emerges & the govt will force-feed their most vociferous critics spoonfuls of humble pie.

Yet the #GreenwichSpeech goes unreported. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1250894405323628545
16/. “You shouldn’t believe everything you read in the papers.” D Cummings.

At the press conference in I believe he’ll give:
1) a moving description of caring for his autistic son;
2) proof that the sightings were wrong;
3) proof he’d taken advice of CMO.
17/. He will explain how he’s always tried to keep his family out of politics, but sadly the “inexcusable allegations & intrusion” by the press have now forced him to take this unprecedented step & talk about something he had alway tried to keep private: his son’s
autistism.
18/. He may explain how his son needs to be left in familiar surroundings with people who know how to handle his condition.

He may explain how he told the PM & CMO & was given the green light to.

There may be calls for those that criticised him to apologise or even be sacked. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1256990021028122624
19. As I say, this thread is pure speculation & I hope I’m wrong.

But is it possible that this whole thing is an orchestrated attempt to silence critics & create a massive distraction ahead of the roll out of a mass testing programme which human rights groups have concerns over? https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1264677359728410624
20/. I don’t normally speculate on Twitter

I have no evidence beyond what’s in the public domain

This thread could turn out to be 100% wrong.

If it is, my apologies for leading you up a cul-de-sac.

You may decide I’ve become fully paid-up member of “tin hat” brigade.
You can follow @StefSimanowitz.
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