Figuring out the Texas trend is really interesting for me for several reasons. I went to UT, Texas is a neighboring state, I'm still salty about Texas quarantining folks from Louisiana, and it's quite a challenge. Using new cases rolling over 7 days it seems like cases are down.
But it's more complicated than that. For one thing, while tests have been rising, they may have plateaued or fallen a bit if you remove the antibody tests.
And the % of tests that are positive hasn't really changed much this month. Maybe a slight decline but averaging between 5 and 7% positive each day when you remove the antibody test counts.
Much of the drop in rolling cases is because last Saturday Texas reported its worst day, over 1,800 new cases. But a full 40% of those cases came from 2 small Texas counties (combined pop. of 260,000) which make up only 5% of all cases reported since March.
That certainly implies a backlog of cases was cleared all at once in those counties. Let's say you remove 600 cases from the Texas count on 5/16, then you get this shape.
Certainly a less clear drop. Anyhow, it's certainly plausible that new cases in Texas are falling, I'd say they're probably flat or slightly decreasing when you put it all together.

Hard analysis to make, seems to me like we won't really know the actual trend for a while.
And fin.

Hook 'em.
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