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Let& #39;s talk about Aaron Jones and that "expected" TD regression everyone talks about and why it& #39;s a lazy take.
Yr: Touches/TDs/Rate
& #39;17: 90/4/4.45%
& #39;18: 159/9/5.67%
& #39;19: 285/19/6.67%
The idea that it was a one year wonder is rediculous. Unless his touches disappear his TDs wont!
Yr: Touches/TDs/Rate
& #39;17: 90/4/4.45%
& #39;18: 159/9/5.67%
& #39;19: 285/19/6.67%
The idea that it was a one year wonder is rediculous. Unless his touches disappear his TDs wont!
But let& #39;s just throw a hypothetical out there. Dillon eats into his touches a little more than Williams and he only has 250. Let& #39;s even assume his TD rate drops to the avg of the last 2 years, 6.17%. This will leave him between 15 & 16 TDs.
This is still firmly in RB1 territory!
This is still firmly in RB1 territory!
But what are the odds of that even happening? GB struggled more than usual. New coach, tough division, etc, Adams injured for a fair bit of time. It is very likely the offense in GB will take a step forward, not back. Which will be good for Jones and his volume.
Aaron Jones is statistically as efficient as Kamara. As a result both are lead backs in a 2 back set.
So why do people seem to think that if Jones had tested FA, that he wouldn& #39;t land a good role elsewhere. Kamara would not receive the same level of hate in that situation.
So why do people seem to think that if Jones had tested FA, that he wouldn& #39;t land a good role elsewhere. Kamara would not receive the same level of hate in that situation.
Which brings us back to Dillon. Some are eager to say Dillon is there to push Jones out. But, Dillon is a one dimensional back taken at the end of the 2nd that resembles Williams to a T. Dillon was a reach at that spot. Williams is also an FA in & #39;21. This wasn& #39;t to replace Jones.
So why is Jones going in the middle of the 3rd round in startup drafts?
Is there risk? Sure there is. Is it any more than top RBs not named Zeke, McCaffrey, Barkley, Barkley? Absolutely not.
Fear of TD regression and FA are overblown and he is very likely to outproduce his ADP.
Is there risk? Sure there is. Is it any more than top RBs not named Zeke, McCaffrey, Barkley, Barkley? Absolutely not.
Fear of TD regression and FA are overblown and he is very likely to outproduce his ADP.
So if you are looking to make an affordable yet high quality impact to your team this year, do yourself a favor and go buy Aaron Jones.
The risk/reward is highly in your favor. You will be snagging an RB1 at RB2 prices.
The risk/reward is highly in your favor. You will be snagging an RB1 at RB2 prices.
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Thanks for giving the thread your attention
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Thanks for giving the thread your attention
