1/ Thread about how serious the #COVID19 situation is in #Indiana prisons and why it needs much more attention and resources. Disclaimers and sources at the end.

2/ First, a reminder on importance of the “% of tests positive” statistic. More obvious #COVID19 cases generally get tested first so this can reflect how many positive cases you’re missing. Low % positive means you’re catching most, high % positive means you’re missing a lot.

3/ For example, #Indiana has a 14.4% positive rate of tests and the IUPUI #Indiana random sample antibody study found that we’re missing 10 out of 11 positive cases. So, while we’ve found ~31k positive cases, there are probably more like ~340k positive cases in Indiana.

4/ Now the important part: As of 5/23, 1,391 inmates in Indiana Department of Correction (IDOC) facilities have been tested for #COVID19 and 663 were positive. So the % of tests positive for inmates in IDOC facilities is a whopping 47.7%.

5/ Remember at Indiana’s statewide 14.4% positive rate we’re catching only 1 out of 11 cases. A positive rate of 47.7% means we’re probably missing a LOT more than that in prisons. If we’re catching 1 out of 45 cases (possible?) that would mean >66% of all inmate have #COVID19.

6/ But wait! Maybe the positive rate is so high because there's not enough testing going on? IDOC has approximately 44,000 inmates and they’ve tested 1,391 of them. Testing approximately 31 out of every 1,000 people.

7/ In contrast, Indiana has administered ~215k tests statewide with a population of ~6.7 million. Testing at most ~3.2 out of every 1,000 people (and probably less due to multiple tests per person).

8/ So, there has been TEN TIMES as much testing per person in prisons as state-wide (which is good!) but the % positive rate is STILL almost 50%.

9/ It’s not just inmates either, the % positive rate for staff at IDOC correctional facilities is 25.5%. Also high.

10/ Bottom line: There is likely a huge #COVID19 problem in #Indiana prisons that needs our attention. Perhaps not surprising given the living conditions (unable to social distance, masks, healthcare access, etc.).

11/ We should care about this for humanitarian reasons but also because prisons can act as hot spots and spread virus through work release, staff, etc. to the wider community. For example, one industry that often relies on work release programs is meat-packing/food-processing.

12/ As the #COVID19 statistics for #Indiana continue to improve and we reopen as a state, we need to focus more attention on high-risk populations such as those in prisons. There's a LOT more that could be said about this, but I'll leave it here.

13/ Note: The statistics in this thread are best approximations based on the available data, which is far from perfect. Sources:
IDOC COVID-19 Statistics: https://www.in.gov/idoc/3780.htm 
IDOC Population Reports: https://www.in.gov/idoc/3793.htm 
Indiana COVID-19 Data: https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm