Thread: Quick thoughts on the troop deployments and tensions in Ladakh between India and China in this thread, looking at motivations. You can catch up on the latest developments in my newsletter published today. https://mailchi.mp/1b5769e331dd/eye-on-china-border-tensions-fpi-review-wha-meeting-lis-sotu-hk-natsec-law-us-strategy?e=011e054811

It’s interesting that on both sides, there’s a view that the standoff serves as a distraction from domestic issues in light of the pandemic. For instance, read this Global Times piece quoting Chinese analysts saying so. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1188681.shtml

This doesn't add up. However, you assess Indian gov't handling of the pandemic, Modi's approval ratings are soaring. And even if a distraction was needed, Pakistan would be a lower-cost & more effective distraction.

On the Indian side, there have been multiple theories, such as China's escalating to divert attention from issues at home; pandemic opportunism akin to SCS; pressuring Delhi on ties with Washington; and stymying India's border infra build-up. See pic from my newsletter last week.

A lot of this doesn't hold up for me. 1. CCP has enough with Trump and Pompeo to need India as a distraction. Just check out @niubi's newsletter each week on the airtime and newsprint spent on American officials. Also, HK, Taiwan and SCS. Do you need new fronts for nationalism?

2. The pandemic opportunism bit is tricky. The question that comes to mind is opportunism to what effect? Minor territorial gain? Even if that's the case, it's a strategic mistake. There'll more border tensions, New Delhi will reduce eco dependence on Beijing & shift toward US.

3. Slowing India's border infrastructure development. This sounds like a plausible reason, given India's push to develop said infrastructure. Check out this @ThePrintIndia story from November last year, citing an MOD source. https://theprint.in/defence/india-catches-up-with-china-builds-over-3000-km-of-roads-along-border-in-20-years/323777/

If this is indeed the case, then we're likely to see such situations becoming more common. India has catching up to do with regard to border infrastructure. It is a security imperative, given China's build-up. Also repeated tensions will reinforce the need to accelerate build-up

Therefore, if peace and tranquility have to be maintained, you'll need much more vigorous and high-level political engagement. And although it's unlikely that Beijing will agree, it's important that both sides arrive at a common perception of LAC.

And then there's a theory that this could be about inter-service jostling within the PLA and CCP. Perhaps, someone wants to get the center's attention, with shrinking defense funds and reduced focus on PLAGF amid reforms.

Plausible and intriguing, but no evidence to support it.