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Lots of discussion lately about what China's intentions might be going forward. So, I thought I'd put together a thread, @ProfPaulPoast-style, on what the IR theory literature has told us about the question of state intentions. 1/
There are basic questions here: do states attempt to gauge intentions or do they simply "assume the worst?" If they do attempt to discern intentions, what are the indicators upon which they rely? And how do states cope with the inherent uncertainty around intentions? 2/
What are "intentions?" Good question, too often taken for granted. For the sake of this thread, let's simply say that they are a state's plans for future behavior. As C. Glaser points out, there is a diff b/w a state's intentions and its motives for behaving a certain way. 3/
To start with, everybody should read Jervis' tragically under-read *The Logic of Images in International Politics*. In it, Jervis distinguishes between "signals" and "indices" in a way that previews later debates about costly signals. 4/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/0231069332/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_kgsYEbXE1QM7X
In the 1980s, @stephenWalt observed that power alone couldn't explain why W. Eur would ally with the US rather than the USSR. To explain that, he argues that states balance against *threats*, not just power. And beliefs about intentions are a key component of a threat. But... 5/
Walt's analysis left key questions unanswered: how are beliefs about intentions formed and how much do they matter relative to the other components of threats? 6/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/0801420547/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_UksYEb8QFCMMB
Since then, there have been a # of key contributions that attempt to understand the role of beliefs about intentions. Mearsheimer argues that states simply "assume the worst" about intentions because they're hard to discern and they can always change. 7/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/0393349276/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_OnsYEbZ0XCXX7
His student, Sebastian Rosato, agrees, arguing that state intentions are "inscrutable." States have no choice but to respond to power and power alone. 8/ https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/inscrutable-intentions-great-powers
But others are not so quick to write off the role of beliefs about intentions. @YarhiMilo focuses on how individual leaders form beliefs about the intentions of their adversaries. 9/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691159165/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_4qsYEb205E7RJ
@AHKydd along with J. Fearon, A. Sartori, C. Glaser, and others have thought about the ways in which states can signal their intentions through their behavior. 10/ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636419708429336?journalCode=fsst20
But be on the look out for work-in-progress by @shifrinson challenging the degree to which states rely on costly signals to judge the intentions of other states. (And read his book, which gets at related questions of intentions.) 11/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/150172505X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_JSsYEbS6X44Q7
By examining the ways in which concerns about legitimacy constrain and enable state behavior, @segoddard offers a novel understanding of how rising power intentions are formulated. 12/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/1501730304/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_KvsYEbC6SWEJ3
And, of course, there's also a robust political psychology literature, including people like R. McDermott and D. Larsen (and, of course, Jervis), who explore the ways in which psychological factors affect beliefs about intentions. 13/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/0801486823/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_7ysYEbVJEQS3M
Yet others have thought about the ways in which a state's reputation is an indicator of its intentions. When do states value another's reputation and how do they incorporate it into their beliefs? Critical ?s address by scholars like @ProfLupton. 14/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/1501747711/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_HAsYEbA63K9VM
Of course, the lits on the dem peace and econ interdep are args for how states discern each other's intentions. But can either dynamic be relied upon to reveal cred info about a state's intentions? @ANewman_forward and @henryfarrell have thoughts. 15/ https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/weaponized-interdependence-how-global-economic-networks-shape-state-coercion
And, well, I argue that how states think about others' intentions depends critically on their time horizons. There's more cooperation than one might expect despite uncertainty about intentions, but states often regret that later. 16/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/1501748459/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_-HsYEbXPMPB4G
Others I've likely forgotten. For example, the intelligence literature approaches this question from a particular angle, focusing on the more practical challenges of discerning intentions. I can assure that there's on slight intended by other omissions! 17/
But through all this literature the basic questions remain: What role do beliefs about intentions play in threat perception? What indicators do states rely upon to judge them? And how do states deal with the possibility that they can change? 18/
And don't forget that states themselves may not know their own intentions! That makes it particularly challenging (that is, impossible) for others to know them with any certainty. 19/
To sum up: IR theorists have had a lot to say about how states judge intentions. They don't offer definitive answers to how to think about Chinese (or American!) intentions, but I'd like to think that, in their own modest way, they can inform the debate. /fin
