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We all know regression is coming for the Chargers.
Rivers passed for 4,615 yards last year.
Tyrod’s career high is 3,035 yards & Justin Herbert is a rookie.
Even the most generous estimates would peg the Chargers passing ceiling at ~ 3,800-4,000 yards in 2020.
[A THREAD]
Rivers passed for 4,615 yards last year.
Tyrod’s career high is 3,035 yards & Justin Herbert is a rookie.
Even the most generous estimates would peg the Chargers passing ceiling at ~ 3,800-4,000 yards in 2020.
[A THREAD]
4,615 yards to 4,000 yards represents a drop of ~ 13.5%
4,615 yards to 3,800 yards represents a drop of ~ 17.5%
Here’s what it looks like if we apply that reduction evenly across the board for LA’s pass-catchers:
4,615 yards to 3,800 yards represents a drop of ~ 17.5%
Here’s what it looks like if we apply that reduction evenly across the board for LA’s pass-catchers:
Taylor/Herbert might be able to match Rivers’ 23 Passing TD’s, but for the sake of the exercise, TD’s have been reduced as well.
Keenan Allen
2019 Stats: 104/1199/6
-13.5%
89/1037/5
That drop would’ve taken Allen from WR6 in total points to WR19.
-17.5%
85/989/5
Would’ve taken Allen from WR6 in total points to WR22.
2019 Stats: 104/1199/6
-13.5%
89/1037/5
That drop would’ve taken Allen from WR6 in total points to WR19.
-17.5%
85/989/5
Would’ve taken Allen from WR6 in total points to WR22.
Mike Williams
2019 Stats: 49/1001/2
-13.5%
42/865/2
That drop would have taken Williams from WR41 to WR50 (& placed him just behind Danny Amendola)
-17.5%
40/825/2
Would’ve taken Williams from WR41 to WR52.
2019 Stats: 49/1001/2
-13.5%
42/865/2
That drop would have taken Williams from WR41 to WR50 (& placed him just behind Danny Amendola)
-17.5%
40/825/2
Would’ve taken Williams from WR41 to WR52.
Hunter Henry
2019 Stats: (16-game pace)
73/869/6
-13.5%
63/751/5
That drop would’ve taken Henry from TE8 in PPG to TE12 in PPG.
-17.5%
60/716/5
Henry still would’ve been TE12 in PPG.
2019 Stats: (16-game pace)
73/869/6
-13.5%
63/751/5
That drop would’ve taken Henry from TE8 in PPG to TE12 in PPG.
-17.5%
60/716/5
Henry still would’ve been TE12 in PPG.
Ekeler
(For the sake of the exercise, we’ll keep his rushing stats the same)
2019 Stats: 92/993/8
-13.5%
79/858/7
That drop strictly in receiving production would’ve taken Ekeler from RB4 in total points to RB7.
-17.5%
75/819/6
Still would've been RB7 in total points.
(For the sake of the exercise, we’ll keep his rushing stats the same)
2019 Stats: 92/993/8
-13.5%
79/858/7
That drop strictly in receiving production would’ve taken Ekeler from RB4 in total points to RB7.
-17.5%
75/819/6
Still would've been RB7 in total points.
As we can see, a production dip spread evenly is far worse news for Keenan than it is for Ekeler or Henry.
It’d take Allen from near-top-5 option to barely a WR2.
Henry'd fall from mid-level starter to back-end starter.
& Ekeler'd drop out of the top-5, but'd still be top-8.
It’d take Allen from near-top-5 option to barely a WR2.
Henry'd fall from mid-level starter to back-end starter.
& Ekeler'd drop out of the top-5, but'd still be top-8.
Of course, there’s a near-zero % chance that the receiving production actually dips totally evenly across the board.
But this should give us a solid place to start & an idea of what a reduced offense would like, & then we can make our cases for target redistribution after that.
But this should give us a solid place to start & an idea of what a reduced offense would like, & then we can make our cases for target redistribution after that.
