1/4 How many Ontarians are getting COVID-19 in the community?

The answer: Far more than we've known.

It's taken @KenyonWallace and I a long time to be able to come up with this: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/05/23/far-more-ontarians-are-catching-covid-19-in-community-settings-than-previously-known-star-analysis-finds.html

2/ So far, it has been impossible to answer this question — despite it being the No. 1 thing *everyone* asks:

"Is this all in seniors homes or what?"

The province doesn't publish the data. There are serious delays.

Our explanation from a month ago: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/05/06/how-many-ontarians-are-still-getting-covid-19-in-the-community-heres-why-the-province-cant-say-for-sure.html

3/ But: The local health units are increasingly making the data public in .csv files (kudos Simcoe Muskoka) or in interactive charts I can tabulate by hand.

The result: We can put the largest units representing about 80% of cases in one chart that *can* answer that question.

4/ That's this chart:

Red are cases in institutional outbreaks, mostly the wave of long-term care home cases.

Blue is everything else.

What this means: Seniors home infections have fallen way down in Ontario since mid-April, but not in the broader community.

/ We did the analysis two ways, and the one by "episode date" is probably the more useful for analysis, but the fact recent infections aren't captured yet (it takes days for people to get sick and tested) means the curves fall off at the right.

Same takeaways.

Here's that: