Why I believe Jonathan Taylor and CEH could be RB1s in year 1 - A Thread

Let’s start with the competition in the backfield.

Much has been said about D Williams and M Mack being involved in the running game. While i think that’s likely true, both of these young studs will still have way more touches at years end.

In 2019 the colts had 471 carries from the RB position with Mack taking 247 of this in his 14 games. With Rivers rushes instead of Brisset’s that number should be closer to 430

There were 91 targets to RBs with Hines nabbing 58 of those. However, with Rivers at QB that should

So let’s say if Jonathan Taylor has a couple less carries per game than Mack but plays all 16 it could put him around 250.

That would still give Mack around 100 and Hines around 50 with another 30 going to random players

The combo of Mack, Wilkins and J Williams averaged 4.7 ypc last year

Taylor is definitely better so we will conservatively give him .2 more to get him at 4.9

4.9x250=1,225 yards

Those same 3 guys with Brissett totaled 16 rushing TDs but we will be more conservative and say 10

Rivers threw passes to the RB 182 times in 2019. So that number is literally double the Colts last season. That is absurd and with a better O line and not quite as elite catching RBs i expect that number to drop yet still be higher than 2019. I think 125 is a good total

So even if Hines is the main RB passing target with 70, Taylor could still comfortably have 40 with 15 left for the other RBs.

Taylor gets comp to Nick Chubb a lot so let’s use his receiving %’s.

Roughly 70% catch percentage with 7.5 ypr

28 rec 210 yds and let’s 1 TD rec.

So in total we’re looking at

Jonathan Taylor
1,225 rush yards
28 rec
210 rec yards
11 total TDs

On to CEH

In 2019 the Chiefs RBs rushed 317 times with Willams and Shady just over 100 each.

Let’s say they bump that to 340

I think Williams will still get around 100 but i think CEH nearly doubles him at 180. D Thompson might get 40 carries leaving 25 for the rest

CEH is also better than the top 2 RBs from last season so let’s bump their roughly 4.55 ypc up .25 to 4.8 for CEH.

4.8 ypc x 180 carries = 864 yds

Rush TDs for him are really hard to project because he isn’t a bruiser so let’s use his comp Brian Westbrook’s TD% which was roughly 1 TD for every 34 carries so that would give him 5 TDs

He should make his hay tho in the receiving game. The chiefs passed to the RB 107 times in 2019. I’m not sure that changes a ton but let’s bump it to 110 for easier math.

I think he gets most of that at around 70 tgts with Williams and Thompson combining for 30.

Going back to the Westbrook comp, even if he was south of his 8.9 per reception. At 8 he would still get get 56 receptions for 448 yards on a 75% catch percentage.

Once again TDs are tough but 3 seems fair at that volume

So that means

Clyde Edwards Helaire would be at
864 rush yards
56 rec
448 rec yards
8 total TDs

That’s means

Taylor would have 237.5 fantasy points

CEH would have 235.2 fantasy points

Or RB12/13 in last years ranks

Assuming they do get the lions share of touches, I believe i was fairly conservative overall in all of these projections. Cont...

A 10-20% bump in final numbers wouldn’t be shocking putting them into RB6-8 range.