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Posting this as a thread in one go coz I need to sleep but also get it out of my head.
SARS-CoV-2 has been traced in France as far back as November, and in the USA in December. Which means it was already adapted to human transmission by then.
SARS-CoV-2 has been traced in France as far back as November, and in the USA in December. Which means it was already adapted to human transmission by then.
So for approximately three months, it worked its way around the world, making the rounds very quietly: that weeklong malaise, that odd cough, that mysterious bug that wasn't flu.
Why were the cases more severe in the late winter than at the start? Why the clusters? A friend had a lay theory, that the human population's general biochemistry wasn't friendly to the virus until then. Vitamin D deficiency is now a likely factor in morbidity of cases.
In November and December a lot of people still had enough stuff in them from the summer and fall that helped fight off the virus. In the depth of the winter, there wasn't as much left.
It seems kooky, but this probably explains why we didn't explode in cases until later.
It seems kooky, but this probably explains why we didn't explode in cases until later.
Consider, too, that the virus found its way into high density populations with shared air: NYC. People had multiple, prolonged exposures to each other thru the subway system. And let's not forget the nursing home issue.
Early in March when people were suspecting they already had the Wuhan Coronavirus in late 2019 I said the timeline of the epidemic curve says they possibly couldn't have.
This thread is me acknowledging I was incorrect, and why I think that's the case. The end.
This thread is me acknowledging I was incorrect, and why I think that's the case. The end.
