So...I've been thinking. Ramzan Kadyrov is pretty important to Putin. Since he became Head of the Chechen Republic, he's been given free rein to do whatever it takes to keep Chechnya "in line." He's even been involved with keeping Chechens and Russians "in line" (read: killed)...

...overseas (look up Killing the Dissidents, by yours truly).
In Chechnya, RK's regime, often via the Kadyrovtsy (his private militia of sorts), has been responsible for everything from public humiliation (for minor "offenses") to torture, killing, and disappearances.

Especially ruthless against suspected Islamists. We're talking TONS of human rights violations. RK has earned the reputation of one of the world's most brutal leaders. But Putin tolerates it, and is largely hands off because Chechnya is not causing problems for Putin.

So what if something happens to Kadyrov? Good question. Here are some scenarios to think about:
1. One of his loyalists takes over with Kremlin approval. Possible choices might include Magomed Daudov, essentially RK's #2. He's head of the Chechen parliament. Another is...

Adam Delimkhanov, Kadyrov's cousin (important) who has been charged with ties to killings on RK's behalf.
BUT any one of RK loyalists would have to pledge fealty to the Kremlim. Clans and associations are important in Chechnya. Think blood feuds. Do RK loyalists (and sometimes..

...literal family members) turn to the Kremlin without some serious incentive?

2. Putin installs a Kremlin guy. This could result in some resistance, which would be an invitation for Russian military intervention.

3. Another bid at independence. See above response.

4. Alone or along side one of the previous scenarios (during what is sure to be chaos during the transition), an insurgency of regional militants/IS sympathizers begins. See response to #2.

These are my thoughts, given Kadyrov's current situation. I honestly have no idea what will happen if/when Kadyrov goes. I don't see it being a smooth transition. I'd like to be surprised.

Stay tuned.