1) Experts across Canada are warning against complacency in the #COVID19 pandemic, with some predicting a second, possibly more dangerous, wave in the fall, coinciding with the start of the seasonal flu. Please click on my story below. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/analysis-quebec-needs-to-brace-for-a-second-covid-19-wave-experts-say/wcm/84da493e-0e18-4487-a703-c26755c0972c/

2) This week, Premier @francoislegault has sought to convey a soothing message of declining #COVID hospitalizations to justify reopening Quebec. Yet behind that reassuring narrative are some disturbing numbers that should give authorities pause.

3) I’ve long argued the Premier should be reporting the daily stats on outbreaks in CHSLDs, or long-term care centres. Friday’s update shows the number of #COVID clusters in CHSLDs and seniors’ residences across Quebec inched up to 166 from 163.

4) The total number of new # COVID cases in these two types of institutions was 69 on Friday, while the death toll rose to 2,790 from 2,701 the day before. But we haven’t been hearing about these stats at the Premier’s daily briefings. Why not?

5) Yet deputy premier Geneviève Guilbault indicated on Friday that the #COVID death toll climbed by 65, not the figure of 89 in CHSLDs and seniors’ residences. Unfortunately, this is not the first such discrepancy in the government’s figures, and likely won’t be the last.

6) Reviewing the chart below, although it’s clear Montreal’s epidemiological curve is flattening, it’s also not bending. The city declared 349 #COVID cases on Friday, down from 428 on Thursday. Those numbers are bound to go up with more tests and public gatherings of 10 people.

7) At the neighborhood level, one observes increases in #COVID cases in the double digits in nine areas. What’s interesting is Rivières-des-Priaires—Pointe-aux-Trembles reported the greatest number, 49. We don’t know if this arises from more testing, community spread or both.

8) Meanwhile, Montreal reported 43 #COVID deaths on Friday, one less from the day before. There seems to be little doubt the mortality trend has been downward in the past two weeks, a positive development in this horrible crisis.

9) But in the last few days, the city's major emergency rooms have been congested from morning to night, undercutting plans to ramp up thousands of elective surgeries. Many ER nurses are angry when they leave their shifts and see people gathering in great numbers in city parks.

10) On Friday, our neighbor to the west, Ontario, reported a third straight day of increasing #COVID cases amid a relaxation of confinement measures. As my column in the @mtlgazette makes clear, we should all be on guard for a second wave. End of thread. Have a great weekend.