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Prepping some notes for a talk/interview tomorrow on the origin and current state of “progress studies”. I wanted to touch on some of its precursors—the intellectual threads that intersected to generate this focus on progress.
Here's what I came up with, what would you add?
Here's what I came up with, what would you add?
1. The stagnation hypothesis, that progress has slowed down in the last ~50 years and that it will not be easy to resume high growth
• Robert Gordon's *The Rise and Fall of American Growth*
• @tylercowen's *The Great Stagnation*
• Many of Peter Thiel's talks and essays
• Robert Gordon's *The Rise and Fall of American Growth*
• @tylercowen's *The Great Stagnation*
• Many of Peter Thiel's talks and essays
2. Renewed interest in “the Enlightenment” and its relevance
• @sapinker's *Enlightenment Now*
• @JonahDispatch's *Suicide of the West* https://rootsofprogress.org/enlightenment-now
• @sapinker's *Enlightenment Now*
• @JonahDispatch's *Suicide of the West* https://rootsofprogress.org/enlightenment-now
3. The data-driven approach to global development
• @HansRosling's @Gapminder
• @MaxCRoser's @OurWorldInData
both of which show a fairly positive story about progress over the last ~200 years: https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts
• @HansRosling's @Gapminder
• @MaxCRoser's @OurWorldInData
both of which show a fairly positive story about progress over the last ~200 years: https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts
4. The Effective Altruism movement, which recognizes the value of progress in science and technology and economic growth for the long-term good of humanity
• @80000Hours
• @open_phil
• etc.
See for example: https://blog.givewell.org/2013/12/26/scientific-research-funding/
• @80000Hours
• @open_phil
• etc.
See for example: https://blog.givewell.org/2013/12/26/scientific-research-funding/
5. A growing movement around governance and institutions, concerned with the decline of our institutions today and the need for reform
• @SamoBurja's Great Founder Theory
• @palladiummag's “governance futurism”
• The charter cities movement, e.g. @CCIdotCity
• @SamoBurja's Great Founder Theory
• @palladiummag's “governance futurism”
• The charter cities movement, e.g. @CCIdotCity
6. A desire for renewed optimism in the culture
• @DavidDeutschOxf's *The Beginning of Infinity*
• Calls for more optimistic vs. dystopian sci-fi
• Efforts to revive exhibitions such as the World's Fair
• @simonsarris: “The future has to be beautiful enough to want”
• @DavidDeutschOxf's *The Beginning of Infinity*
• Calls for more optimistic vs. dystopian sci-fi
• Efforts to revive exhibitions such as the World's Fair
• @simonsarris: “The future has to be beautiful enough to want”
And although it came well after @tylercowen and @patrickc's article in @TheAtlantic that galvanized the “progress” movement, I have to mention @pmarca's recent manifesto, which summed up a lot of the progress mentality: https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/
Part of the motivation for much of the above, I think, is the growing distrust of elites and institutions that is leading to populism and nationalism worldwide.
An idea that the world is in decline, and that in response we should throw out the elites and raze the institutions.
An idea that the world is in decline, and that in response we should throw out the elites and raze the institutions.
In response to that, I think a lot of people want to say: Elites and institutions need to be reformed, but not destroyed. Because the world is *not* in decline. Things are actually getting better overall, and they can keep getting better if we renew our commitment to progress.
PS, if you want to hear me talk about this tomorrow: https://www.meetup.com/52LivingIdeas/
PPS, definitely should have added @stewartbrand and @longnow in here! https://twitter.com/nicholaspaul26/status/1263985800775000064
