Warning - Michael Gallup and Christian Kirk propaganda incoming.

I'm taking a look at the early career trajectory of WRs who put up multiple WR1 seasons since '03, and the market is just flat out missing on some guys

Walk through here

There are 20 WRs who played 12+ games each of their first 3 seasons and went on to put up multiple WR1 seasons. I'm removing Welker and Baldwin, our resident UDFAs.

Here's how they fared over their first 3 seasons in the league:

WRs are expected to take a bit to develop, but 61% put up WR3+ numbers (10 PPG here) as rookies.

The ones who didn't are Jennings, DHop, A. Adams, Roddy, Jordy, Brandon Marshall and Decker.

Only 22% hit WR2 or higher (12.5 PPG here) - they can't all be Odell or MT.

39% of them missed WR3 numbers altogether, though, so I think Y2 is more instructive. 78% (14/18) put up WR2 numbers in Y2! That's a substantial jump and looks like a good indicator.

So who are some Y2 WRs that have matched this benchmark?

Sutton, Gallup, Moore, Chark, Ridley and Kirk all produced 12.5+ PPR PPG in Y2.

How about misses?

A. Miller, Pascal, Tate, Lazard, Washington all fell short of WR3 numbers in Y2.

Now Y3 WRs - 89% of our sample of multi-WR1s hit WR2 numbers in Y3. Misses are Andre Johnson (who hit WR2 PPG in Y2) and Jordy.

Godwin, Juju, Golladay and Kupp have all hit WR2 seasons.

We're still waiting on Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Dede, Curtis Samuel, Zay and Keelan.

A couple takeaways from this exercise:

-It's nuts how cheap Christian Kirk is (WR35 ADP per @DLFootball)
-I don't even have the proper descriptor for how insane it is that Gallup is WR40 while CD is WR15 and Amari is WR11