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This Change Research poll of MI is wild:
-Biden is outperforming Clinton by a whopping 6 points among voters above 50
-Nonetheless, Biden is STILL only 3 points ahead of Trump, because..
-Biden is UNDERPERFORMING Clinton by 5 points among voters under 35 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cudhidXBjYIBGgwiej3KqkllJFOyXms5uoiJO5utCM/edit#gid=0
-Biden is outperforming Clinton by a whopping 6 points among voters above 50
-Nonetheless, Biden is STILL only 3 points ahead of Trump, because..
-Biden is UNDERPERFORMING Clinton by 5 points among voters under 35 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13cudhidXBjYIBGgwiej3KqkllJFOyXms5uoiJO5utCM/edit#gid=0
This same trend appears in every single swing state poll I've seen:
-Biden is crushing Trump among moderate older voters
-Trump has a small minority of younger voters
-Biden is still way underperforming Clinton among younger voters
-Biden is crushing Trump among moderate older voters
-Trump has a small minority of younger voters
-Biden is still way underperforming Clinton among younger voters
In other words, Biden WOULD be blowing out Trump by historic margins, except he can't seem to motivate young people, who overwhelmingly went for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren over him in the primary
The crazy thing is, it's not like those voters are going for Trump. They're saying they're "not sure" or "won't vote" or want to vote third party. They're there for the taking, if Biden can find a way to excite them.
Think about how ridiculous it is that Biden is getting the same share of voters under 35 and over 65. There is usually a HUGE age gap in American politics - for Clinton, the spread was 10 points! If Biden could produce a similar age gap, he'd be leading by over 6 instead of 3
One last thing here to note: for all the sturm und drang today, Biden is currently running 1 point behind 2016 among black voter (so is Trump). That represents a .1% decline in Biden's vote, while his weakness among young voters is causing a decline 15 times as large.
