Does anyone believe this "drove 260 miles with covid" story? Because I don't. Here's what I think happened. 1/

Dom and his wife had arranged some time before to visit his parents. They decided to go ahead with the visit despite the lockdown. When Dom was seen furtively leaving no.10 in a hurry and then disappeared for two weeks, he was off to Durham. 2/

At some point, while they were in Durham, he and his wife developed symptoms of covid. 3/

Also at some point he was seen by a member of the public, who told the police. This might have been while he had covid, since it comes and goes. 4/

Police talked to a member of the family - maybe his parents? about the need to observe the rules. 5/

After ending self-isolation the family returned to London. 6/

Now the police visit has been revealed in the press, he has had to think up a story in a hurry to explain his presence in Durham. 7/

He knew about Jenny Harries' statement on 10 April and realised that gave him a potential escape route. So he concocted a story about driving to Durham so his parents could look after his child while he was ill. 8/

But this story has huge holes in it. If he and his wife were both simultaneously ill enough to need their child to be looked after 24/7, they were too ill to drive to Durham. 9/

And they also knew that the virus was potentially lethal to elderly people. So if they did drive to Durham while ill, they were deliberately risking his parents' lives. Government advice at the time of their Durham visit was that children should not go to their grandparents. /10

It's also possible that he never had covid symptoms at all, and his wife's Spectator story is a smokescreen to cover his absence from work and discourage journos from investigating where he had gone. /11

In fact the more I think about it, the more likely this seems. They knew they were in big trouble if their trip to Durham came to light, so they concocted a story about covid infection as a smokescreen. /12

But now the smokescreen has collapsed, so they've had to think up another story in a hurry. Trouble is, new story had to include both serious covid infection (because that's what Wakefield's piece says) and a trip to elderly parents in Durham, simultaneously. /13

The new story also had to make the trip to Durham appear to be within govt guidelines. Hence the totally incredible "drove 260 miles while ill with covid so elderly parents could take care of child". /14

And because he knows he is in trouble, he also musters his troops to sell this incredible story to senior journos in a flurry of anonymous briefings. Very high profile journos, bcs he needs publicity, but also ones he thinks won't ask awkward questions.... /15