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Twitter Thread- Is Goedert a buy or sell candidate?
In this thread, I am going to compare Ertz's and Goedert's production to see if Goedert is a current buy or sell for dynasty. I will also look at Ertz's contract and Goedert's ADP.
PPR used when talking about fantasy points.
In this thread, I am going to compare Ertz's and Goedert's production to see if Goedert is a current buy or sell for dynasty. I will also look at Ertz's contract and Goedert's ADP.
PPR used when talking about fantasy points.
First, let's dig into the fantasy points for both of these TEs in 2018 and 2019.
2018
Ertz: #2 (279.3)
Goedert: #20 (90.4)
2019
Ertz: #4 (214.6)
Goedert: #10 (142.7)
By looking at the FF finishes, it shows Goedert is becoming more involved. But is it affecting Ertz's target%?
2018
Ertz: #2 (279.3)
Goedert: #20 (90.4)
2019
Ertz: #4 (214.6)
Goedert: #10 (142.7)
By looking at the FF finishes, it shows Goedert is becoming more involved. But is it affecting Ertz's target%?
Now, let's look at the team target% of both TEs in 2018 and 2019. Eagles had 588 team targets in 2018 and 604 team targets in 2019.
2018
Ertz: 156 (26.5%)
Goedert: 44 (7.4%)
2019
Ertz: 135 (22%)
Goedert: 87 (14%)
2018
Ertz: 156 (26.5%)
Goedert: 44 (7.4%)
2019
Ertz: 135 (22%)
Goedert: 87 (14%)
Ertz had a reduction in team target% by 20% from 2018 to 2019 and Goedert had a team target% increase by a whopping 97%. Goedert is showing he's becoming more involved by looking at overall targets, but what about targets per game in 2019 in games >25% snaps?
Targets per game (TGP) in 2019
Ertz: 9 TPG
Goedert: 6 TPG
Now, let's look at targets from the beginning and end of the season.
TPG before bye
Ertz: 8.3 TPG
Goedert: 4.4 TPG
TPG after bye
Ertz: 10 TPG
Goedert: 7.9 TPG
Ertz: 9 TPG
Goedert: 6 TPG
Now, let's look at targets from the beginning and end of the season.
TPG before bye
Ertz: 8.3 TPG
Goedert: 4.4 TPG
TPG after bye
Ertz: 10 TPG
Goedert: 7.9 TPG
Both TEs become more involved as the season moved on (Ertz by 20% and Goedert by 80%), but Ertz still had the lion share of the targets. We have two more pieces to this puzzle. Can Goedert get out of Ertz's shadow to be a dominant TE and how is Goedert currently being valued?
Ertz's contract for 2020 and 2021 (from http://spotrac.com )
Eagles picked up Ertz's 2021 option 2 months ago
2020: 12.4 million w/ 13.6 million guaranteed remaining
2021: 12.7 million w/ 7.7 million guaranteed remaining
Eagles picked up Ertz's 2021 option 2 months ago2020: 12.4 million w/ 13.6 million guaranteed remaining
2021: 12.7 million w/ 7.7 million guaranteed remaining
From looking at Ertz's contract, I do not see Goedert getting out of Ertz's shadow until 2022. The Eagles may move Ertz if they trade him to a team that agrees to take the dead cap because the Eagles are 50 million over the 2021 cap, but I doubt it.
The final piece is Goderts ADP (from DLF). In SF leagues, Godert is being drafted as TE9. This is rich and I would want TEs like Hockenson(TE12), Hooper(TE10), and Higbee(TE13) over Goedert straight up and TEs like Hurst (TE15), Jarwin(TE16), and Jonnu Smith(TE17) at their costs.
Goedert is a good TE and has high TE2 upside and will continue to be used by the eagles, but he will not be the main TE if Ertz is still around. If an owner in your league values Goedert as TE9, sell him because I doubt Goedert is taking over the Ertz role for another 2 years.
Thank you for reading all the way through this thread. Please let me know what you think of this thread. Let's discuss!
