"Our estimates suggest that the epidemic is not under control in much of the US: as of 17 May 2020, the reproduction number is above the critical threshold (1.0) in 24 states.” https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-23-united-states/">https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...

YIKES "We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold"

According to this model, the South and Midwest are at high risk of resurgence.

Here’s Texas. Pink is a 40% increase in mobility. Yellow is 20%. Blue is holding mobility constant.

This model does not factor in mask wearing or testing and contact tracing. So it’s somewhat of a worst-case scenario.