one of the checks on COV is all cause deaths. if it were killing an unusually large number of people, you& #39;d see it spike.

i pulled data from NCHSD through wk 17 (end apr)

i then adjusted it for US population.

here& #39;s what we get:

pop adj deaths are 0.32% higher than 2017-18
this is a striking figure. we& #39;re probably within the margin of error vs the flu 2 years ago

2017-18 was a baddish flu, but not a really bad one

and we certainly did not shut down the world over it

the shape of the curve is odd

it was a very mild year, then a sharp spike
that first chart is basically the comparison of area under curve for a flu season in the second (which can be really difficult to eyeball), then adj for population (which chart 2 is not)

we had significantly negative cumulative excess deaths through about wk 10 of the year
then it caught up in a big hurry.

this may have implications for covid IFR.

if a large number of people outlived their life expectancy, that means there was a large cohort of the vulnerable available for covid to target.

this would make IFR look higher.
had this happened in march 2018, there would have been a very small cohort. IFR might drop by 50-75%.

the start state matters. this is also why you NEED to measure deaths from week 40-39.

flu season peaks around jan 1.

H2 flu season is not an independent variable from H1.
this has led to a lot of misleading takes using calendar year that makes the mild H1 of 2019-20 flu season fall into a different year than the catch up that it set up.

this can lead to misleading results.

be very critical of any study using calendar year.
a check on this "catch up" theory is that the disease would disproportionately affect the old.

and it does.

covid is no more deadly that a solid flu if you are under 45.

it& #39;s actually MUCH less deadly if you are under 24.

this seems to fit the "catchup" hypothesis.
we see this same effect in sweden. https://twitter.com/HaraldofW/status/1263838255176450051?s=20">https://twitter.com/HaraldofW...
and also in the US states. https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1262783822925647872?s=20">https://twitter.com/kerpen/st...
even the CDC is now taking the IFR of covid down into the 0.26 range, and that& #39;s using 35% asymptomatic, which almost certainly too low.

the real figure is probably 50%.

that would make IFR 0.2% exactly in line with @JamesTodaroMD s estimates.
this 0.2% compares to 0.16% for the flu of 2018-19. it means we& #39;re really not far off.

and that takes us full circle to this data where we see deaths 0.32% higher than 2017-18, a number that foots well with that difference in severity.

looks like it really was "the flu, bro"
You can follow @boriquagato.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: