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I love Taleb’s books and think he’s brilliant but I often wonder if he got lucky in 1987 crash when he was 27 years young, walked away a millionaire, spends his whole life trying to prove that it wasn’t luck. An impossible task
Sure he’s an asshole, but at least he doesn’t hide it. You can learn an awful lot from people like him if you bring an open mind.
His convictions can be difficult to hold on to because you have to wait years, decades, centuries for theories to play out, all the while looking stupid. And if you turn out to be right, everyone forgets about it the next day or is too panicked to give a damn
When you call a looming disaster that nobody sees, and it happens, you then cannot go and flaunt it. That would be bad taste. But it’s also wrong for others to assume that anyone who identifies risk is secretly hoping that the world will end. Not the case, at all https://twitter.com/3cheesemafia/status/1231769769705013248
Ultimately, if you can’t see that humans are AWFUL at understanding risk and probability, you are one of the “imbeciles”. People like Nassim push the needle forward.
