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What's my COVID-19 risk?
This is a very rough & ready estimate of the risk of dying from COVID-19 in the UK during the period up until 25th April 2020.
It's based on the OpenSafely data analysis.
This is a very rough & ready estimate of the risk of dying from COVID-19 in the UK during the period up until 25th April 2020.
It's based on the OpenSafely data analysis.
Assumptions
1. Risk factor weights: see link
2. Chronic diseases: each extra one doubles risk
3. Estimated 2.5 times more COVID-19 deaths than "in-hospital deaths" in the paper (by comparing "in-hospital deaths" to weekly excess deaths) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1
1. Risk factor weights: see link
2. Chronic diseases: each extra one doubles risk
3. Estimated 2.5 times more COVID-19 deaths than "in-hospital deaths" in the paper (by comparing "in-hospital deaths" to weekly excess deaths) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1
It isn't perfect but it might help contextualise risk
e.g. Compare risks
- 35 yr old female health care worker with diabetes from a minority ethnic group: 0.02%
- 55 yr old white male postal worker, fit & healthy: 0.16%
(8 times higher risk)
e.g. Compare risks
- 35 yr old female health care worker with diabetes from a minority ethnic group: 0.02%
- 55 yr old white male postal worker, fit & healthy: 0.16%
(8 times higher risk)
