1/n. How has transmission varied after the (world's largest) lockdown in India? When should we exit the lockdown and how do we do it safely?
Read on as we explore these questions and more in our latest #COVIDー19 study from #AIIMS & #IISER #MedTwitter
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20096826

2/n.
significant transmission drop after #lockdownindia, but Rt as of 22 Apr still above 1
smaller and later #secondwave if (regional) lockdowns relaxed farther after peak has passed
expanded #testing an effective exit strategy, will influence degree of return to normalcy

some observations from the study-
Contagion seeding
here is a fig showing how COVID-19 was seeded in India by imported cases (~550 cases; stage1) in March. Imported cases started dropping a day after flight ban, however local transmission had begun and kept growing (stage2)

4/n.
#Transmission trend in #India
-spike in late Mar (tablighi cluster) - compare w mobility drop on 23 March
-continuous down trend from Apr (effect of #lockdown+)
-last estimated Rt=1.15 on 22 Apr (above threshold of 1)

When will we reach Rt<=1(some states alrdy have)