As you may have heard, one the few bright spots of the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant lockdown/stay at home order era is that the bike business is going gangbusters. In the U.S., bike shops are experiencing record sales and manufacturers are struggling to keep pace with demand.

This is happening in part because bikes are one of the best available transportation options at a time when mass transit should be reserved for essential workers and automobile traffic volumes are significantly below normal. But they’re also great recreation and exercise.

Families struggling with how to keep kids active and slightly less bonkers at a time when they’re not in school and can’t play with friends are rediscovering, as JFK put it, the simple pleasures of a bike ride. They’re buying new bikes and fixing up old ones.

What’s more, many cities have grasped the wisdom and necessity of making spaces normally given over to cars more open available to people on bikes and on foot, closing down streets and parkways to make outdoor recreation safer and more accessible to more people.

Some of those cities are even committing to permanent street closures to encourage cycling and walking after the worst of the pandemic has passed. Infrastructure changes that would have been absolute pipe dreams mere months ago are made almost overnight.

So, what could possibly go wrong? Glad you asked. Because while all of this is good news in the immediate sense, it also creates a perfect storm of potential risks and dangers that haven’t been meaningfully addressed or perhaps even considered.

First of all, let’s acknowledge that safe, thoughtfully designed bike infrastructure in the U.S. does not work on the principle of supply and demand. The demand (and the need) has always been greater than the supply and will be for years to come.

Some of this is down to general spinelessness on the part of city governments who would rather dodge the controversy, thoughtful planning, investments and shouty public meetings that come with making meaningful change to the way that our streets work.

But prioritizing people on bikes also represents a cultural shift, both in terms of thinking about the way that cities work and budgeting dollars accordingly. And like the old saying about turning a battleship, that takes time — even when need is as obvious as it is.

Back to supply and demand: We’re currently experiencing a significant spike in the number of people who ride bikes. This increase has been prompted by extraordinary circumstances, but it still means the demand for safe streets and paths is greater than ever.

This increase has occurred suddenly, and many people are having their first experiences with riding bicycles on city streets when there’s much less automotive traffic on those streets than usual. This is true of downtown corridors, surrounding neighborhoods and even suburbs.

As lockdowns relax, stay-at-home orders expire and more businesses begin to open up again, it’s guaranteed that the volume of automobile traffic on city streets is going to increase. Gradually at first, and perhaps not to pre-pandemic levels. But increase it will.

Those of us who regularly share streets with people in cars, especially during rush hour, know that the infrastructure in even the most bike-friendly cities is still overwhelmingly car-centric and provides protections for cyclists that range from symbolic to nonexistent.

Even if some streets and parkways remain closed, the vast majority of surface roads will be open to an increasing number of vehicles. And the infrastructure that makes getting around by bike in those places possible will be just as inadequate as ever.

Now, throw in a suddenly larger population of people on bikes, many of whom are just learning to navigate the places they live and work on two wheels. In infrastructure terms, the demand will be greater than ever, but the supply be unchanged. And there’s your perfect storm.

The question that needs to be asked (and one that very few people in positions of power seem to be asking) is this: How will cities that have been designed to prioritize cars at the expense of everyone else evolve and adapt to a boom in bicycle traffic after the pandemic?

But wait, there’s more: As we’ve seen, reducing the overall volume of automobile traffic has not reduced the number of crashes and fatalities. In fact, just the opposite. Tempted by a lack of congestion, people are driving more recklessly and dangerously than ever.

Even the most optimistic among us would have a hard time believing that people are going to be safer, more thoughtful, less reckless, less distracted, and more patient behind the wheel than were, pre-pandemic. And that puts the growing population of cyclists at even greater risk.

If anything, when we factor in the idea people have spent less time behind the wheel for weeks on end and as such have grown unaccustomed to city traffic, we should absolutely expect their behavior behind the wheel to be even worse, and hence more dangerous.

The worst-case scenario, obviously, is an unprecedented and horrific increase in crashes, injuries and fatalities. But an even more likely outcome is that the same people who’ve just discovered or rediscovered cycling are going to be scared away from it. Maybe for good.

How many near-misses, buzzings and other automotive menacings is it going to take to convince someone who’s just getting the feel for navigating the neighborhood, running errands or going to work on a bicycle that it’s just not worth risking their life? Their kids’ lives?

Let’s be clear: THIS IS NOT A BIKE PROBLEM. This is a car problem, and as has been reinforced again and again, bikes are a huge part of the solution. Protecting people on bikes (and on foot) from cars means building safer streets with fewer cars moving more slowly.

In the months ahead, we have a narrow window of opportunity to demand that more street closures be made permanent and insist on making meaningful improvements to our streets that make them safer for all cyclists of all ages and abilities. Not just a bunch of sharrows.

What can you do to help? In short, get informed and get involved. Find out what organizations in your community are advocating for safer streets. Get to know the routes near you that need the most work. Go to those hearings and meetings. Speak out, online and in the real world.

But most of all, keep riding. And encourage all of your friends and neighbors to do the same. Especially the ones who are new or newly returned to cycling. Ride with them, show them around, share what you know. Make it as fun for them as it is for you.

And while this should go without saying, don’t be a jerk. Are there going to be more people on your favorite trails and routes? Yes, there are. AND THAT’S GOOD. They’re our allies and we’re going to need all of them if we’re going to get anything done. Be patient and be nice.

Thank you for reading, and huge thanks to Mike Sonn ( @mikesonn) and Risa Hustad ( @risahustad) for their thoughts and recommendations, which immeasurably improved this thread. Get involved, use your voice and stay safe out there, friends. /end