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Back in college my environmental toxicology prof shared some insight on risk assessment that I've been thinking about a lot in light of COVID (ok I guess this will be a short thread)
So, part of environmental science/toxicology is learning to crunch numbers for impact statements—figuring out, for example, roughly how many extra cases of cancer per 100,000 people a particular contaminant might cause, based on available data on its health effects/exposure
You learn pretty quickly that number crunching does not make risk assessment *simple*. The same people who think 100 extra cancers per 100,000 "people" is an acceptable risk might BURN YOUR HOUSE DOWN for saying 10 extra cancers in *kids* is an acceptable risk
But one thing that really stuck with me is this notion of who is taking on the risk, and where, and how. You're more likely to think a risk sounds unacceptably high if you feel you don't have a choice in avoiding that risk.
If the unavoidable exposure to a contaminant is happening at your job, you're more likely to see that as unacceptable than the same level of risk if you go, say, kayaking. In fact you'll probably be willing to assume more risk. "People can choose whether or not to kayak," you say
But the interesting thing is that lots of us will also feel better about taking ON those risks if we feel we're choosing them.
So this is where COVID comes in: I worry people are not thinking very critically about risk mitigation when it comes to doing stuff that is fun.
So this is where COVID comes in: I worry people are not thinking very critically about risk mitigation when it comes to doing stuff that is fun.
I guess that's kind of a "well, duh" on some level, but I think it's worth stating plainly and examining closely in yourself: Your brain is primed to magnify the risk of, say, getting essential groceries, while minimizing the risk presented by a trip to the beach
If you feel you have a CHOICE in taking on a risk, you're less likely to see that risk as posing a danger to you and your family. So it's worth pausing and asking yourself why the things that seem scary seem scary, and why the risks that seem worth it seem less scary.
Anyway, the TL;DR is just that your brain is way worse at assessing relative risks and levels of danger than you'd like to think, and you should strive to avoid risk of spreading COVID wherever you can, not just where it feels like a good idea *to you*
This PSA brought to you by Don Roeder, who also brought you this charming anecdote https://twitter.com/RachelFeltman/status/1233037089165447168
