1. It’s time to worry (not panic) about whether the Palestinians stop security coordination with Israel. If they move ahead the consequences may be profound. A destructive result of Trump’s policies which have brought us to the brink of annexation. https://twitter.com/nerizilber/status/1263746163985055745?s=21

2. The close security coordination between Israel & the PA is the one of the few good news stories in the conflict in recent years. The cooperation and the trust between security officials on both sides is genuine.

3. For the PA, Israeli intel helps protect against Hamas & other extremist groups. For Israel - PA security forces mean the IDF doesn’t have to deploy thousands of troops into Palestinian cities.

4. However, with no political horizon & even worse annexation, security cooperation for Palestinians feels more like collaboration & perpetuation of the occupation than building the necessary institutions for a future state.

5. For years the Palestinian leadership has threatened to cut off security cooperation with Israel. It’s one of the few points of leverage the PA has. But they‘ve never followed through because ultimately it’s against their own interests.

6. current situation is the farthest they’ve ever gone. Cutting off ties with the CIA. Not letting IDF into Hebron and publicizing on Fatah social media. Stopping coordination meetings with Israel. This is different.

7. it could be they are bluffing, or they do this for a bit & walk it back. But there is a precedent where Abbas threatens things for years like going to the ICC or refusing to take tax transfers. Eventually after threatening so many times, he feels he has to follow through

8. And unfortunatelty the Palestinians’ greatest piece of leverage is the threat to collapse and cause more headaches for Israel. This is terrible leverage since it hurts them as well. But they have so few options

9. My bet is that this will happen slowly and carefully. if annexation doesn’t happen then security coordination will come back. But if annexation happens or steps are taken in that direction, than watch out. Things could get terribly ugly.

Bibi & Trump are playing with fire.