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Increasingly, commentators are calling on the federal gov’t to publish an Economic and Fiscal Update (EFU) in the absence of a budget. @BillMorneau is resisting, saying that the future path of the economy is too uncertain for an update. Unfortunately, he is probably right. 1/n
Most of the uncertainty comes from the revenue side. No one knows how an economy facing a supply shock like this one will respond. The future path of gov’t revenues is therefore particularly uncertain. 2/n
More certain, however, is the path of future spending since that is ultimately under gov’t control. Saying we don’t know what programs will cost is the same as saying we have written a blank cheque. That is no way manage public money. 3/n
Programs are announced daily without any meaningful details, including their cost and the impact on the gov’t budget. If the Minister can’t estimate the demand for a program, he should be willing to say what is the maximum amount he is willing to allocate to it. 4/n
So hold off on the EFU if needed. But don’t lose the discipline of being transparent about what programs will cost and their budgetary impact. Good stewardship of public money and our democratic system require it. N/n
