So this is how I see the new National Security law being implemented, in stages. The wording will be vague, allowing for an adjustment over time as to what constitutes things like "separatism" & "subversion".

So then, stage 1...

Stage 1 is where they use the law selectively and against high profile individuals. The protest organizers, prominent opposition members, media opponents. Also against the occasional low level person who really does go & commit an extreme act, which they can hold up as an...

...example of the kind of "extremism" & "terrorism" they are facing. This will help get all the foreign useful idiots (aka tankies) on board.

Then there is Stage 2...

Stage 2 is where the law starts to be applied more widely. Marches will not be given police permission, so those that happen will be classified as "subversive". They can then threaten anyone attending with up to life in prison. Mass arrest & prosecution of these "terrorists"...

...The point of this is to scare people away from protesting to show the world how normal things are. A KEY THING TO UNDERSTAND is that Stage 2 will come in WHETHER OR NOT Stage 1 works at ending protests. If Stage 1 doesn't work, they will claim Stage 2 is necessary...

...If Stage 1 does work, then there is no effective opposition to stop them, and the goal has always been control, not "stopping violence".

Finally there is Stage 3...

Stage 3 is effectively just like China. They'll start blocking more & more "subversive" websites which spread "foreign influence" (Facebook, Twitter, Youtube etc etc) and they'll start chasing down individual users who still go onto these platforms...

...Local sites like LIHKG will be the first to go as they won't stir up so much international attention or upset the bankers. Stage 3 will also see the complete crushing of any "yellow circle" businesses. They will be shut for any display & even if they take them down they'll...

...still be squeezed by administrative departments (licenses revoked, unreasonable inspections forcing shutdown directly or through fines)...

China never reaches a point where it is satisfied that the threat is gone. It can never have enough control. This is its pathology...

If it sees the current threat like facing a tiger, then when the tiger is gone it will go for the puma, then it will be house cats who are the threat. Once the house cats are gone it'll see the mice as the threat and on and on. Xinjiang & Tibet show that it never stops.

Also possible that they start giving incentives to loyalists to move here from the Mainland, again just like in Tibet & Xinjiang.